FIGAROVOX/Tribune – If the new prime minister comes from the traditional right, his nomination must be understood as a democratic accident and not a victory for his political family of origin, analyses essayist and historian Maxime Tandonnet.
Essayist and historian, Maxime Tandonnet has notably published André Tardieu. The Misunderstood (Perrin, 2019), recently reissued in the “Tempus” collection.
The traditional right, also called “republican” is happy as it has not been for eight years, the victory of François Fillon in the 2016 primaries which seemed to open the way to the Élysée. One of its own, Michel Barnier is back at Matignon, at the highest level of the State. It is almost unanimous, all tendencies combined, to rejoice, liberal, sovereignist, conservative, popular. Better, it seems reconciled: the supporters of the independence of the right as well as those rallied to Macronie commune in the same satisfaction.
The transfer of power at Matignon gave rise to an astonishing scene of the “old hat”New World” (Macronist) by the former. The new Prime Minister found the words adapted to the expectations of the French: “humility, truth, respect, action“. So, everything happens as if the traditional right has just won the elections. However, this impression is a mirage, a pure illusion: it has not won the elections. It is even coming out of a long series of thunderous defeats, did not gather more than 10% of the votes in the last legislative elections and only has a small minority of 50 deputies out of 577… So, what is happening? What kind of victory does Michel Barnier’s installation at Matignon come from?
Why not give him a chance? On the other hand, a possible failure on his part, a fall into unpopularity, would mean the definitive annihilation of the classical right and the door wide open to adventure, perhaps the apocalypse for France.
Maxime Tandonnet
The return to power of the classical right is the result, not of an electoral victory, but of a democratic accident, a violent jolt of political history as occurs periodically. This one results from the explosion of the political class, caused by the dissolution of President Macron. The latter, after having triggered the nuclear apocalypse of Article Twelve, found no other solution than to appeal to Michel Barnier in haste and improvisation, a final desperate appeal to try to limit the consequences of his adventurous gesture.
The current scenario does not correspond to anything known, nothing planned. It is not a cohabitation by which a Prime Minister, relying on a majority in the National Assembly, imposes his will on a Head of State who has become a minority… It is not a “government agreement” , negotiated and contracted calmly between the leaders of Macronie and LR, that is to say an act of compromise for the sharing of prebends and the artificial reconstitution of an absolute majority. It is not either a “legislative pact“, based on a common programme of reforms.
It is not an act of submission to the Macron presidency. The latter has been struck down, Jupiter’s thunderbolt turning against itself, a presidency now weakened, discredited and on the brink of the abyss – of resignation, to be frank. It is the presidency that is relying on Michel Barnier as the ultimate saviour, much more than the other way around, in a survival reflex: to save the five-year term. As in a classic parliamentary democracy, the executive power is shifting to the side of the prime minister.
Also readHervé Morin: “Michel Barnier can achieve a minimum consensus”
The only thing that mattered, for the ex Jupiter, was to save his skin by avoiding a motion of censure at least in the coming year. He was unable to go to the left, due to the intransigence of the Mélenchonists. So he swung to the right, by the sole force of circumstances, constituting in the Macronist center and on the right, a quasi-understanding, unspeakable because shameful, a non-aggression pact with the National Rally.
And Michel Barnier found himself to be the instrument of this non-aggression pact. However, the latter is based on an immense paradox, a gaping flaw: the silent truce between yesterday’s sworn enemies, Macronism and Le Penism. Wasn’t hatred of “populism” or the nationalist plague, originally, one of the reasons for Macronism’s existence? What a paradox! An infinitely fragile and precarious position: the Barnier experience is based entirely on this paradox and the extension of the truce… In truth, the traditional right has no reason to rejoice or to let itself be overcome by euphoria.
Can the “strange victory”, or fake victory, be transformed into an authentic democratic victory? Let’s be clear: the door is narrow and the chances of success exist, but they are quite slim. Michel Barnier was not chosen by the French and his profile is a priori not very consistent with the anti-system vote of 56% of the French (RN and NFP) in the legislative elections. His government, deprived of any clear majority – this is unprecedented – will be hostage to the goodwill of both the Macronists and the RN.
Also readGuillaume Tabard: “Michel Barnier in search of a “demanding coexistence””
But sometimes, the twists and turns of history, political chaos and all the debacles come from beautiful surprises. Without even mentioning the heroic moments (Brumaire, June 18), the “Pinay experiment” that no one expected in 1952 offers a fine example of a success despite headwinds that no one expected. Michel Barnier seems to have broken with the pro-European dogmas during the 2022 primaries; he took firm positions on immigration, at the center of the concerns of the French. Today, he speaks of “truth, humility, respect for the people, action rather than blah blah” – aiming at Macronism through each of these words. The words that needed to be heard. If he manages to build a bond of trust with the country, he can turn the tables, shake up the system. Why not give him a chance? On the other hand, a possible failure on his part, a fall into unpopularity, would mean the definitive annihilation of the traditional right and the door wide open to adventure, perhaps the apocalypse for France.
