After a slow first half of the year, the national economy demonstrated a strong capacity to rebound in the third quarter, reflecting the dynamism of activity outside agriculture which accelerated at a more sustained pace than expected. , standing at +5.1%, instead of +3.2% on average in the first half. This revival, driven by a strong and concomitant increase in domestic and external demand, was confirmed by the latest economic surveys, with an increase in the rates of utilization of productive capacities and an almost general improvement in the activity of the branches secondary and tertiary market sectors.
Stimulated by the revival of European and Asian demand, national exports in volume increased by 9.8% in the third quarter of 2024, instead of +7.8% in the previous quarter. It is particularly the local extractive industries and those in the chemical, electronics, automobile and textile branches which have benefited the most, with respective increases in their added values of 15.9%, 18. 2%, 16.1%, 16% and 5.3%, in the third quarter of 2024, in annual variations.
Services also experienced a significant acceleration, posting an increase of 3.8%, thanks in particular to the strengthening of domestic demand. Household consumption strengthened, showing an increase of 3.9% in the third quarter of 2024 and investment growth accelerated, reaching 13.5%, reflecting a sustained effort to equip private companies for the replacement and modernization of their productive apparatus, as well as a strengthening of infrastructure projects.
Overall, gross domestic product grew by 4.3% in the third quarter of 2024, in annual variation, instead of +2.4% on average in the first half. This dynamic supported a slight improvement in the employment rate, which stood at 37.6% during the same period, but without allowing a decline in the unemployment rate, establishing itself for the fifth consecutive quarter. above 13%.
The revival of activity was also accompanied by a significant increase in the financing needs of the economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world, standing at +3.8% of quarterly GDP. Despite an improvement in private savings, the expansion of investments was more vigorous, leading to an increase in treasury and corporate debt.
Resumption of growth at the beginning of 2025, after a moderation at the end of 2024
The national economy should regain more dynamism at the start of 2025, after a moderation in its growth at the end of 2024. At an annual rate, GDP growth would have reached 3% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and should accelerate to +3 .5%, in the first quarter of 2025, particularly if climatic conditions move towards a more rainy regime during the winter season, with rainfall levels close to seasonal norms.
According to the HCP, excluding agriculture, growth in activity would continue to exceed post-Covid trend rates, but would gradually readjust, reaching 3.7% and 3.5% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. Domestic demand would remain the main driver of activity, with an increase of 5.4% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending should maintain its dynamic, but growth in gross investment should moderate, after the recovery recorded in the third quarter. The improvement in household purchasing power, induced by gains linked to socio-fiscal measures applied to public and private sector employees and the deceleration of inflation, would support an increase in consumer spending of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 3.4% in the first quarter of 2025, in annual variations. Public administration consumption would, for its part, be driven by the combined increase in spending on goods and services and operating expenses.
The prospects of moderation in foreign demand, combined with the anticipated rise in labor costs, would encourage private companies to gradually limit their equipment projects. On the other hand, investments by public companies in infrastructure linked to the organization of major sporting events and seawater desalination projects would maintain their momentum, favoring an increase in gross investment of 9.8%. in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 8.8% in the first quarter of 2025, in annual variations.
The contribution of foreign trade to activity would remain negative during this period, but would weigh less heavily on activity at the start of 2025. In volume, exports should experience a slight acceleration, showing an increase of 7.1% in the first quarter 2025, after +6.2% in the previous quarter. At the same time, growth in imports would be less sustained than in mid-2024, against a backdrop of moderation in domestic demand.
Inflationary pressures should remain contained, with an increase in consumer prices of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024, after +1.3% in the previous quarter. This development, attributable, in part, to a high base effect, would have resulted from an increase of 0.7% instead of +1.4% in the prices of non-food products and of 0.7% instead of +1.4%. +1% of food prices. The prices of fresh products would have continued their decline that began at the beginning of last year (-0.7 point contribution to the increase in prices in the fourth quarter), under the effect of the drop in prices of fresh vegetables, after the strong increases recorded during the same period of 2023. The decrease in international prices of energy raw materials would, for its part, have induced a negative contribution of the energy component to overall inflation (-0.1 point, compared to +0.3 points in the third quarter).
