When it comes to public finances, the new government has good news and bad news to share. The good news is that at the last count, the French public deficit has not slipped more than expected. By 2024, it should have reached 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest internal feedback from Bercy. This is obviously much more than the 4.4% initially targeted, but at least there was no additional drift in the final weeks of the 2024 financial year, when some experts imagined that it would could rise to 6.3%, further increasing France's debt. Public spending has been held, and revenues are, at this stage, in line with the latest forecasts.
The bad news is that the objective stated for 2025 by the Barnier government is no longer tenable. The previous prime minister hoped to reduce the public deficit to 5% of GDP. Mission impossible, the executive now believes. It will be “around 5%, a little more than 5%”had slipped François Bayrou on December 23, 2024. Since then, a precise course has been set: limit the deficit of the State, local authorities and Social Security to 5.4% of GDP in 2025, indicate consistent sources.
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