The political year 2024 could be summed up in one word: degagism. The causes of the rejection of existing governments are multiple: taste for change, wear and tear of power, deep crisis of confidence in elected officials, last burst of anger in the post-COVID-19 period, rise in the cost of living, etc.
Published at 9:00 a.m.
If voters’ distrust of political leaders is nothing new, its intensification coincides with two particular features of our time: an acceleration of political cycles and a growing form of governmental impotence.
Few elected officials escape it
In 2024, few elected officials have escaped the erosion of power and the disaffection of voters. In London, Paris and Washington, the last elections were a slap in the face of outgoing governments.
Closer to us, in many cities, mayors who, until recently, embodied renewal and progress are seeing their re-election compromised.
In Quebec, the Legault government fell in the polls just a few months after obtaining a historic majority.
In Ottawa, Justin Trudeau has increased announcements and social initiatives of all kinds, without succeeding in reversing the poll curve. Nothing helps.
Perish where we promised too much
For Prime Ministers Trudeau and Legault, unpopularity seems inversely proportional to the hope or confidence that they were able to inspire in voters. What made these governments strong has often become their Achilles heel.
In Quebec, doubt followed the enthusiasm of the ministerial announcements.
Seeing companies like Northvolt or Lion Électrique on the verge of bankruptcy, having to justify the reduction in the French offering or, even, going back on promises such as the Espaces bleus regional museum network or the expansion of the deposit was certainly not what the CAQ strategists had initially imagined.
Likewise, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau aspired to change things, he too is overtaken by reality. In immigration, a mea culpa: the time has now come to lower the targets, to regulate study permits, to put in place increased surveillance at the borders.
In the environment, the setbacks add up. The federal government has granted a carbon tax exemption for heating oil. It also saw its law on the environmental assessment process partially invalidated by the Supreme Court. In Saskatchewan and Alberta, he faces resistance from all sides.
The boomerang effect is powerful. The unpopularity that sticks to the skin of the Trudeau and Legault governments is associated with issues which, originally, appeared to be one of their “strengths” or, at the very least, one of their assets.
The dizziness of complexity
Where our leaders attempt to make changes, they come up against increasingly strong and increasingly numerous obstacles: legal constraints, public finances, environmental issues, resistance to change, international circumstances, etc. In these circumstances, do not Doing nothing sometimes becomes the least bad policy.
Examples of paralyzed reforms are multiplying. At the federal level, Meta’s boycott of online news sharing has largely neutralized the effects of Bill C-18. For months, the desire to ban several models of firearms has come up against the impossibility for the federal government to recover them through a buyback program: many provinces refuse to collaborate, as does Canada Post.
Solutions are never as easy as they seem. In opposition, François Legault strongly criticized the Couillard government’s support for the C Series. He would have preferred an investment in Airbus’ parent company. A few years later, the Legault government committed itself directly to the parent company of Northvolt. In both cases, the good intentions did not produce the expected effects!
Decisions that were once quite simple to make are becoming more complex. In Quebec, the hesitations and reversals in the tramway and third link files reflect a certain inability to carry out infrastructure projects.
Beyond questions of the competence of our leaders, we must agree that contemporary public governance has become hypercomplex.
The obstacles are numerous and they ultimately contribute to the boomerang effect. The more our governments get bogged down in reforms, the more inertia is felt and the more voters turn to simple solutions.
Populist political movements attempt to respond to this search for simple solutions, within a complex world. However, they are not the only ones to use this process.
Offering GST checks or holidays, reducing the number of foreign students in our post-secondary institutions, promising to close CBC/-, even the major political parties with a culture of government are proposing these types of changes which will become, sooner or later, the battlefield of their Waterloo…
The hearts of voters often take refuge in disenchantment. For our elected officials, no shortcut seems to avoid the erosion of power: per aspera ad astra* !
* Which can be translated as follows: by arduous paths to the stars.
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