Faced with an international economic environment still marked by uncertainties, caution remains in order. Inflation, sectoral growth, balance of payments balance, public finances and global economic situation make up the arsenal of parameters closely scrutinized by BAM. “Uncertainty remains high,” underlined Jouahri, warning of a risk of an inflationary rebound due to international economic and geopolitical tensions.
Inflation at 1%
Although the governor of the central bank prefers not to declare victory in the face of inflation, it is clear that it has declined significantly. After a slight increase to 1.3% in the third quarter, it returned to 0.7% in October 2024. This deceleration is mainly attributable to the accentuation of falls in the prices of food products with volatile prices and fuels. At the same time, the increase in regulated prices remained unchanged at 1.9%. Underlying inflation remained at a moderate level, standing slightly above 2%, within the central bank’s target according to the Wali.
Inflation expectations, as revealed by Bank Al-Maghrib’s quarterly survey of financial sector experts, indicate that the latter expect an average rate of 2.3% for the horizon of 8 quarters and 2.4% for that of 12 quarters, which testifies to an anchoring of expectations.
Thus, for the central bank, in 2024, inflation would be around 1%, after a rate of 6.1% in 2023. It should remain moderate in the medium term, being, according to Bank Al-Maghrib projections, to 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.
As a reminder, the BAM Board approved a 25 basis point reduction in the key rate, bringing it to 2.5%. A decision justified by this inflation now contained at levels compatible with the objective of price stability.
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