A loss of regional position
Regionally, the regime’s expansionist policies have failed. Iranian proxy forces, such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, have lost much of their effectiveness and can no longer serve as tools of influence for the regime.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria dealt a devastating blow to Iran’s regional strategy. The regime’s operational headquarters in Damascus, which planned proxy wars in the Middle East, no longer exists. According to Mehdi Taeb, a senior intelligence official for the Revolutionary Guards, Syria was so strategic to Iran that he said: “If the enemy attacks us and we have to choose between keeping Syria or Khuzestan [province pétrolière iranienne]we must prioritize Syria. Because by keeping Syria, we can recover Khuzestan, but if we lose Syria, we will not even be able to keep Tehran” [le journal Asré Iran le 14 fev. 2013].
Organized resistance and the role of resistance units
Despite intense repression, the Iranian resistance has transformed into a very effective force. Resistance units, made up mainly of young people, are active throughout the country. These small groups of 3 to 5 members, organized at the local level, have the capacity to lead uprisings and mobilize street power capable of confronting repressive forces.
The experience of the Syrian revolution has shown that it is impossible to overthrow a brutal dictatorship without organized resistance. In Iran, resistance units provide the operational capacity necessary to carry out such an overthrow.
The collapse of the regime’s survival strategies
The survival of the regime has historically been based on three main pillars:
Internal repression: The ongoing massive protests demonstrate that repression is no longer enough to contain discontent.
Regional expansionism: The fall of Bashar al-Assad and the decline of proxy forces have deprived the regime of its main tools of regional influence.
The Quest for Nuclear Weapons: This policy has further isolated the regime and could trigger military attacks on its nuclear facilities.
These strategies are seriously compromised and appear to be on the verge of total collapse.
Fear of a Syrian scenario in Iran
The Iranian regime and its foreign supporters have often used the argument of the “Syrization” of Iran to dissuade the international community from supporting regime change. However, the facts show that this fear is unfounded.
Maryam Rajavi, leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), denounced this “lie” at an international conference, saying: “The main factor of instability and destruction in the region is the Iranian regime himself. The alternative to this regime is not chaos, but a free and democratic Iran.”
An Iranian solution for democratic change
The solution to this religious dictatorship lies in fundamental change, led by the people and the resistance units. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), as the political wing of this movement, proposes a clear program for the post-regime:
- The formation of a six-month provisional government to hold free elections.
- The drafting of a new constitution based on freedom, equality and the separation of religion and state.
- The abolition of the death penalty, the establishment of social justice and the construction of a nuclear-free Iran.
The Iranian regime is facing a multidimensional crisis that it is incapable of managing. The Iranian resistance does not ask the international community to take responsibility for change, but simply to recognize the right of the Iranian people to fight against the regime. By supporting the legitimate aspirations of the Iranian people, the free world can play a vital role in bringing peace and stability to the region.
