New stage of the budgetary marathon: the finance bill for 2025 is examined from Monday, November 25 in the Senate. After being largely amended and reworked by the deputies, the revenue section was finally rejected during a vote in the Assembly on November 12. The numerous amendments adopted by the opposition to unravel the government's copy therefore ended up in the trash, and the text was sent to the upper house in its initial version, that of the government. For the senators, mainly from the “common base” which forms the Barnier government, it is an opportunity to take advantage of the new balance of political power to rewrite the budget.
If it had to deal with a tripartite Assembly, in the Senate, the government can count on a comfortable majority, thanks to the addition of the seats from the right and the center, i.e. five groups bringing together 245 seats out of 348. “Unlike the National Assembly, where there is no clear majority (…), here [au Sénat] there is a clear majority who will support the government's action”Michel Barnier rejoiced before the senators at the end of September.
This was not the case for the previous government, since the right, with a majority in the Senate, was in opposition to Emmanuel Macron. “When you are in opposition, you exist less, we were a negligible quantity”recalls the Les Républicains (LR) budget rapporteur Jean-François Husson.
The alliance between the Macronists and LR has reshuffled the cards, and it is time for the first test for this coalition. The Prime Minister also sought to cajole the main tenors of the Luxembourg Palace. Several meetings were organized to bring together the President LR of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, Jean-François Husson, all the rapporteurs of the finance committee from the senatorial majority as well as the rapporteurs for opinions of the other committees.
An opportunity to display the unity of the “common base” partners, far from the divergences and lack of coordination observed between the Macronists and the right during the debate in the Assembly. “With the senators of the 'club of five', we are trying to create a little fluidity and complicity. We were not necessarily friends, but we are in a government alliance. There are a lot of us and we are going to work together, in connection with Matignon and Bercy”says Jean-François Husson.
The allied senators in fact accept some disagreements on the budget, in particular on certain increases in contributions or taxes. “We will defend the Macronian line of supply policy, even if we are only 20 against 240”promises François Patriat, leader of the Macronist senators, worried about a possible increase in labor costs, but ready to make concessions to the right. These areas of disagreement are not likely to paralyze discussions or unravel the government's copy, as was the case in the Assembly. “Here, we have no extremes, we all know each other, we respect each other and we talk to each other”François Patriat insists. “And then the Senate must take its responsibilities; for the first time, it is it which is able to draw up the budget”praises the senator from Côte-d’Or.
This context should allow senators to work together and amend this budget. “The culture of consensus has always been the prerogative of the Senate, where central groups are traditionally well represented”underlines historian Jean Garrigues, who recalls that this allowed senators to weigh in on immigration reform at the end of 2023, after its rejection by the National Assembly. “They can allow Michel Barnier to move forward on the budget, but on their conditionscontinues the academic. This shows the influence of the Senate, which has been revalued for several years, with a new legitimacy, including in the media.”
Among the senators' red lines is the defense of the local communities, which they represent. When the government wants to impose a budgetary effort of five billion euros on them, the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, pleads in The Sunday Journal to reduce it to two billion. “There will be loyal and demanding support for the government, but we are also an independent assembly, which will have markers, will correct things”warns Jean-François Husson. To ensure that their markers are durable, senators are already anticipating the next step, that of the joint committee (CMP), a parliamentary body set up to resolve disagreements between the Assembly and the Senate.
During the immigration reform, the CMP was largely inspired by the text voted by the senators. To repeat this scenario, elected officials try to find consensus. “The objective is to have as many avenues as possible for the CMP, so we look at what was the subject of convergence in the Assembly”we explain to the LR group in the Senate.
In the National Assembly, the influence of senators on the budget does not only make people happy, including within the “common base”. An MP and former minister Together for the Republic says she is very “anguished at being erased for the benefit of the Senate”. The result of the vote, on December 12, will give a more concrete idea of the weight of senators on this 2025 budget. But we will have to wait for the outcome of the CMP to see if it has left its lasting mark on this text.
