This fall, Michel Barnier changed the chairs around his work table because they were giving him back pain. Will Marine Le Pen, who often experiences such pain, be sensitive to it? This Monday, the Prime Minister will welcome him in his office.
Between them, this meeting will be important. The president of the RN group in the Assembly will be the first to be received as part of the series of consultations of opposition groups in Parliament that Michel Barnier will lead until Thursday. But for several days, Marine Le Pen and her troops have electrified the situation. They have not ruled out adding their votes to the motion of censure that the New Popular Front will certainly table in mid-December to reject the government budget. That would bring this one down. Since then, everyone has been agitated. What if the Prime Minister fell on Christmas Eve? It has become the current soap opera.
Government censorship: Marine Le Pen increases pressure on Michel Barnier
On Monday, Marine Le Pen will not arrive in a good mood at Matignon. For two months, she felt that she had been totally neglected by the Prime Minister, who had never received her until now. As part of the budgetary discussions, she had expressed some demands. He didn't take it into account. The three-time presidential candidate had notably declared unacceptable the delay in the revaluation of retirement pensions on 1is July. But when the head of government reversed this decision, it was to Laurent Wauquiez that he granted this concession, and the president of the Republican Right group, whom she loathes, was able to triumph at the 20 Hours of TF1.
Overall, Marine Le Pen did not at all appreciate the way in which he managed the budgetary debate at the Palais-Bourbon, letting it get bogged down, while the deputies of the common base were conspicuous by their absence. “ She found his method contemptuous of the Assembly and that it revealed another side of Michel Barnier: a man less respectful than he claims. », assures Sébastien Chenu, deputy for the North, very close to her.
Will Michel Barnier seek to calm the wrath of Marine Le Pen? Will he succeed? At Matignon, we emphasize his state of mind: “ He is open to dialogue. » During their meeting, the Prime Minister does not intend to limit himself to budgetary issues and will also discuss the country's major issues. Could he make a move on the implementation of proportional representation in the legislative elections that Marine Le Pen wants, while until now he has left the subject unaddressed?
Without waiting, faced with the prospect of a possible motion of censure which would cause the country to experience strong shocks, the head of government in any case began to dramatize his speech in order to confront everyone with their responsibilities. “ I know that this is not what the French want, who today want stability, serenity “, he declared before the congress of mayors of France on Thursday. According to a survey carried out by Ipsos for La Tribune Sundaythe reality seems more contrasted. 53% of French people are in favor of censorship of the Barnier government. In detail, this result is completely structured by partisan bases. If 88% of LFI supporters are in favor, 85% of those from Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons and 83% of those from LR are opposed to it. In the RN, 67% want such censorship.
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This will be the most scrutinized figure. Will Marine Le Pen fail to satisfy her base? “ Even if the base is very supportive of censorship, it is not enough to win an election », replies a minister. Within the government, there are many who do not want to believe in its fall, even if the threat of immediate ineligibility which now hangs over Marine Le Pen in the context of the trial of the FN parliamentary assistants could have tipped his troops in the irrational. “ I thought that appearing as artisans of disorder was no longer what the RN was looking for “, says another of his colleagues.
At Matignon, there is also a lot of emphasis on another interview that the Prime Minister will have on Wednesday. It will be with Boris Vallaud, the president of the socialist deputies, and Patrick Kanner, that of the senators. “ The PS is pivotal in the Assembly. Is this group, which includes a former President of the Republic, ready to vote on a motion of censure with Mathilde Panot and Marine Le Pen to bring down the government and cause economic and institutional instability? » asks one of his relatives. In the Ipsos survey, the result is nevertheless clear: 73% of PS supporters want censorship of the Barnier government.
Today, can its dynamics still be stopped? Launched into a time trial, the Prime Minister has a month to work on it. If he fails, only 29% of French people say they would like Emmanuel Macron to reappoint him to Matignon. 33% of them would prefer the appointment of a Prime Minister from the Common Base, like Michel Barnier, and 38% of a Prime Minister from the New Popular Front. “ It's a return to square one: we find the same situation as five months ago, the day after the second round of legislative elections.analyzes Brice Teinturier, Deputy Managing Director of Ipsos. The lines don't move. The balance of power is crystallized. »
Ipsos survey for La Tribune Dimanche carried out from November 20 to 22, 2024 among a representative sample of the French population of 1,000 people aged 18 and over interviewed via the Internet using the quota method. (Credits: Infographic Camille Chauvin for La Tribune Dimanche.)
