For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the matter is almost over. Michel Barnier will fall “between December 15 and 21”, he predicted, Sunday November 17 on France 3. Still theoretical, this hypothesis has gained weight in recent days: the alliance of the left, the New Popular Front (NFP) has planned to submit proposals in December motions of censure in the event of recourse by the government to article 49.3 of the Constitution to adopt the 2025 budget, and Marine Le Pen affirmed, Wednesday November 20, that the National Rally (RN) will not hesitate to join in censorship if “the purchasing power of the French is reduced” – allowing the motion to gain a majority. This prospect forces the NFP, which came first in the July legislative elections, to think about what comes next.
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In July, the four parties in the coalition ended up speaking with one voice and pushed the candidacy of Lucie Castets for Matignon. Four months later, the mood has changed. If all left-wing deputies – including François Hollande – are ready to vote for censure, the alliance could fall apart over the strategy to be followed subsequently.
On France 3, Jean-Luc Mélenchon delivered his vision of events, predicting “an election [présidentielle] anticipated”. “This is what hangs over us”he argued, convinced that the political configuration will force the head of state, Emmanuel Macron, to resign and provoke a return to the polls. This scenario seems to be favored by the former socialist senator, who took the opportunity to position himself. “If it’s an election that takes place right away, no doubt I can be encouraged to go”he developed, verbalizing an ambition that he had kept quiet until then.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon would pull the rug out from under the feet of his NFP partners, who dream of an alternative candidacy to his own, but which they have not had time to bring to light. “He is best placed to represent himself in an early election”agrees the president (La France insoumise, LFI) of the finance committee of the National Assembly, Eric Coquerel, who believes that “the left does not leave lost, given what it has shown” in the Hemicycle, notably when she voted for 75 billion euros in additional revenue during the budgetary discussion.
The PS is considering options other than an NFP government
This enthusiasm for a surrender by Emmanuel Macron fuels the thesis of those who think that the “rebellious” do not really want to go to government. Even if, moreover, they continue to support the candidacy of Lucie Castets for the post of Prime Minister. “We have a base of 192-193 deputies. We can have majorities with others. Let us try. Macron has no other solutions”considers Eric Coquerel.
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