Iran’s presidential election: a reformer wants to create a surprise

Voting operations for the presidential election in Iran began at 8:00 a.m. (04:30 GMT) on Friday, in Iran, in the 58,640 polling stations scattered across the immense country, from the Caspian Sea in the north to the Gulf in the south. This election had to be organized hastily after the death of President Ebrahim Raïssi in a helicopter accident on May 19. It is closely followed abroad while Iran, heavyweight in the Middle East, is at the heart of several geopolitical crises, from the war in Gaza to the nuclear issue, in which it opposes Western countries.

As is tradition, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was one of the first to vote in front of dozens of cameras in an office in Tehran. “Election Day is a day of joy and happiness for us Iranians,” he said. “We recommend to our dear people to take the vote seriously and participate in it. I see no reason to hesitate,” he added.

Four candidates, men in their fifties and sixties, are in the running. If none of them wins more than half the vote, a second round will be held on July 5, which has only been the case in one presidential election, in 2005, since the advent of the Islamic Republic 45 years ago. Official results are expected by Sunday at the latest, but estimates should be published on Saturday.

The surprise could come from the only reformist candidate, Massoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old MP who was virtually unknown when he was authorized to run by the Guardian Council, the authority responsible for supervising the elections. With a discreet appearance but speaking frankly, this doctor of Azeri origin, a minority in northwestern Iran, has given new hope to the reformist and moderate camps, totally marginalized in recent years by conservatives and ultraconservatives. He is “honest, fair and caring,” said the former reformist president Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), who called for a vote for him, like the former moderate president Hassan Rohani (2013-2021).

Facing him, the supporters of the current government are divided between the candidates Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, conservative president of Parliament, and Saïd Jalili, former ultraconservative negotiator of the nuclear issue and hostile to a rapprochement with the West.

To hope to win, Massoud Pezeshkian must count on a sharp increase in turnout compared to the last elections, which were shunned by about half of the voters. Only 49% of them voted in the 2021 presidential election, in which no major reformist or moderate candidate was allowed to run. Opponents, particularly those from the diaspora, have called for a boycott of the vote.

Whatever the result, the election is expected to have limited repercussions because the president has limited powers: he is responsible for implementing, at the head of the government, the broad political guidelines set by the supreme guide, who is the head of state.

For the latter, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “the most qualified candidate” to be president should be “the one who truly believes in the principles of the Islamic Revolution” and allows Iran “to advance without being dependent” on foreign countries. He however specified that the country should not “cut off its relations with the world.”

During the debate, ultraconservative Said Jalili criticized the moderates for signing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with the major powers, which “did not benefit Iran at all.” “Are we supposed to be eternally hostile to America or do we aspire to resolve our problems with this country?” asked Mr. Pezeshkian, calling for a revival of the nuclear deal, in order to bring about a lifting of the severe sanctions that are affecting the Iranian economy.

In addition, the highly sensitive issue of the compulsory wearing of the veil for women has emerged in the campaign, almost two years after the vast protest movement that shook the country at the end of 2022. It followed the death of Mahsa Amini, arrested for not respecting the dress code. In the televised debates, the candidates distanced themselves from the sometimes violent police arrests of women refusing to wear the hijab in public places. “We should not under any circumstances treat Iranian women with such cruelty,” said Mustafa Pourmohammadi, the only religious candidate.