EXCLUSIVE – Legislative elections: discover the results of our daily survey of June 25

The “clarification” announced by Emmanuel Macron to justify the dissolution will it take place? For the moment, an absolute majority does not seem to be in sight, a few days before the first round of the early legislative elections. Find, like every day at 5 p.m. until the end of the electoral period, a real-time snapshot of the balance of power for this election.

Thanks to this projection produced by our partner Ifop-Fiducial for LCI and Tf1info, follow throughout the campaign how voting intentions evolve for the different groups that make up the political landscape of our country. Here are the results from this Tuesday, June 25.

The gap is widening between the RN and the NFP

Five days before the first round, the National Rally confirms its large lead in the polls. In this lightning campaign, the party chaired by Jordan Bardella continues its lead and continues to collect 36% of voting intentions (=). In this projection, the far-right party is ahead of the New Popular Front, which loses one point compared to the previous day’s poll and now collects 28.5% of voting intentions (-1). The presidential camp, under the banner Ensemble!, gained 0.5%, but still remains far from the leading duo, with 21% of voting intentions.

Far behind the three main blocs which bring together the main political forces of the country, no party crosses the 10% threshold of voting intentions. The Republicans, in the midst of a crisis since the alliance concluded by their president Éric Ciotti with the RN, lost another 0.5 point compared to the June 24 poll and now collect 6.5% of voting intentions. In this poll, Eric Zemmour’s party, Reconquête!, collected 1.5% of the votes during the 1st round (+0.5).

How many seats in the National Assembly?

In view of the results obtained, Ifop-Fiducial projects that the bloc formed by the National Rally could obtain between 220 and 260 seats, therefore missing the absolute majority, at 289 seats. Among them, 10 to 20 would be seats occupied by candidates invested by Eric Ciotti’s micro party, following its alliance with the far-right party. The NFP would obtain between 180 and 210 seats. The Ensemble! group, which represents the presidential camp, would only obtain 75 to 110 seats, effectively losing the relative majority obtained during the legislative elections in 2022. LR could hope for 25 to 50 seats and the various left could have 5 to 9 .

This projection should, however, be interpreted with caution given the uncertainties linked to the configurations of the second round and the withdrawal instructions which will be given after the first round.

Final lesson from this survey: participation remains high. It gained one point compared to June 24 to stand at 64.5%. For comparison, during previous legislative elections, 49% of voters went to the polls. In addition, the share of voters who say they are sure of their choice is increasing further. 83% of them know what they are going to vote for. That means only 17% of voters say they can still change their minds.

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The Ifop-Fiducial survey for LCI, “Le Figaro” and Sud Radio was carried out online between June 21 and 25. It was conducted on a sample of 2,335 people registered on the electoral lists, taken from a sample of 2,500 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over. These results should be interpreted as an indication of the state of the current balance of power and not as a predictive element of the results on voting day.