“You understand that in the case that concerns me, automaticity obviously has extremely serious consequences,” responded Marine Le Pen at the bar. “That would have the effect of depriving me of being a presidential candidate, that’s it.”
If the court found Marine Le Pen guilty of embezzlement of public funds, it could, however, “by a specially reasoned decision”, decide not to sentence her to a sentence of ineligibility.
Given the stakes in this case, we can imagine that the court intended to justify such a decision in one direction or the other.
National Rally trial: the bodyguard, the chief of staff, the historical figures… who are the defendants tried alongside Marine Le Pen
Conviction, appeal and cassation appeal
If Marine Le Pen is convicted at the end of this trial, it is likely that she will appeal. In this case, the sentence of ineligibility would be suspended until the new trial. And if she is convicted by the court of appeal, she will probably file an appeal in cassation, also suspensive.
If we compare the usual delays of justice to Marine Le Pen’s political agenda, we can imagine that the decision of the current trial would be rendered within three months, that an appeal trial would be held a year later late, with again three months before the rendering of a decision on appeal – approximately June 2026.
Then there remains the appeal stage, before the court decision is final.
In criminal matters, the Court of Cassation delivers its judgments on average in five months.
But if the file is complex or the lawyers are very picky, this period can stretch considerably: two years, for example, between François Fillon’s appeal and the decision of the Court of Cassation (May 2022-April 2024).
It is therefore entirely possible that there will be no final decision on this matter before the 2027 presidential election. And if Marine Le Pen were to be elected President of the Republic, the procedure would be suspended for the duration of her mandate.
Provisional execution
The appeal is suspensive… unless the court attaches a “provisional execution” to the sentence – which means that it applies from the time of conviction, whether there is an appeal or not.
Marine Le Pen should not, however, lose her mandate as a member of the National Assembly if the case arises.
The Constitutional Council, in fact, consistently refuses to strip parliamentarians sentenced to a sentence of ineligibility from their mandate, as long as the decision is not final.
The argument – astonishing because it renders meaningless the very principle of provisional execution – had notably justified the rejection of the request for forfeiture of mandate of the former socialist senator Jean-Noël Guérini, in 2021.
But a possible provisional execution could nevertheless weigh heavily in the balance. Because who knows how the Constitutional Council, responsible for registering and examining candidacies for the presidency of the Republic, would receive that of a contender subject to a current ineligibility sentence? There is currently no case law on this.
Marine Le Pen tried on September 30 for suspicion of embezzlement of European funds
