The return to power of the American billionaire gives food for thought to French political leaders. If France and the United States are very different, Donald Trump's strategy, by placing the economy at the center of his speech and maintaining his strategy of polarization, can provide ideas.
Results followed very closely by the French political class. Donald Trump's very large victory, after months of campaigning under high pressure, was scrutinized by the entire political spectrum on this side of the Atlantic. If the American context is very different from ours, there is no question of doing without the lessons of the American presidential election three years before the future race for the Élysée.
“Donald Trump dealt with the economic question, Kamala Harris did nothing about it,” MP François Ruffin regretted on Thursday on RTL, who broke with the rebels, seeing it as a reason for “the most fragile” to support the septuagenarian.
“When the left abandons the workers, we should not be surprised that the workers abandon the left,” also asserted the deputy for Somme, echoing the words of Senator Bernie Sanders, classified to the left of the left. of the Democratic Party.
Several CNN exit polls show that Donald Trump was largely supported by people without a diploma: the billionaire thus has a 34-point lead over Kamala Harris in this category of the population.
“Rising prices are among the main concerns”
People who define themselves as “poor” or “struggle to make ends meet” also overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump with 42 points ahead of Kamala Harris.
Handicapped by the rise in inflation which exploded in the United States under Joe Biden with almost a 20% increase in prices, Kamala Harris has been rather discreet on issues related to the wallet which particularly impact the poorest . Enough to give food for thought on this side of the Atlantic. If inflation has slowed significantly in recent months in France, it jumped by almost 6% in 2023.
“Economic issues have always been central in American elections, just as in France where the rise in prices is among the main concerns,” analyzes Matthieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos and a good expert on the United States.
“We could make Bill Clinton's witticism in 1992, 'It's the economy stupid', a good mantra in France as in Washington,” smiles Philippe Karsenty, the spokesperson for the Republicans in France.
Social issues, not a determining element for the ballot
In recent years, several French political parties have played the card of societal issues in the broad sense, of the fight against police violence for France rebellious the fight against “wokism” by Marine Le Pen and Éric Ciotti.
Kamala Harris also chose to focus on defending abortion. While at least 20 American states have legislated over the past two years to restrict access to abortion, the Democrat hoped to mobilize the Democratic electorate on this issue, and particularly women.
Donald Trump, for his part, was rather temperate in this campaign on the issue of reproductive rights. Despite virulent remarks made against Kamala Harris on the subject, he said he was rather in favor of each state being free to legislate as it saw fit on the matter. But the strategy was not a winning one for the Democrat.
“She played on the societal level to give a dynamic to the left wing of the Democratic Party electorate tempted by absenteeism,” judges the director of the United States Political and Geostrategic Observatory of the Institute of Relations. international and strategic (IRIS) Romuald Sciora.
Result: 50% of people interviewed at the exit of the polls by CNN, who judged that abortion should be legal in most cases, voted for Donald Trump.
“When we look at the figures, we see that the issue of abortion only motivated the vote for Kalama Harris for people who see it as a central issue. For others, including those who consider it important but not capital, it was not a decision-making driver”, analyzes Nicolas Tenzer, member of CEPA, a research institute dedicated to promoting links between Europe and the United States.
Enough to put into perspective the influence of societal issues in presidential campaigns, including in France.
“We sometimes have the impression that focusing a campaign on societal issues can widely mobilize people. In reality, it is not a factor in broad mobilization. This should make us think when we want to conquer the power of not focus everything on that,” analyzes pollster Matthieu Gallard.
A divisive strategy, not a pushback
Éric Zemmour, like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have chosen in recent years to lead campaigns based on the polarization of the electorates. The founder of France Insoumise was, for example, largely inspired by the “sound and fury” strategy theorized by the philosopher Chantal Mouffe.
Could the result of the American election give fodder to those in favor of staging strong political divisions? The answer could well be yes.
Just as he did in 2016 and then in 2020, Donald Trump used very inflammatory rhetoric, calling migrants “savages” who “poison the blood of the country” and even eating dogs and cats.
“Kamala Harris did Hollande”
While the former leader traveled the country choosing to polarize the debates to the extreme, Kamala Harris initially chose to focus on an image of a woman posed with her head on her shoulders. She finally ended up taking out the boxing gloves at the end of the campaign. Not enough to convince the Americans.
“You have to hold on, not make any concessions to appear more acceptable to your opponents as Kamala Harris did,” judged Jean-Luc Mélenchon in a blog note.
Same story for MP Antoine Léaument who explained at the LCP microphone that “Trump did Trump” while “Kamala Harris did Hollande”. “There is also a concern in France that some want to follow this path to the left, a soft, flexible path, which in the end brings the extreme right to power.”
“We can win without ever giving up our ideas. We can win by talking to the people without trying to please the media. That's exactly what Donald Trump told me on the phone,” Eric Zemmour said on his side. CNews, the day after the billionaire's victory.
The boss of Reconquête had led a polarization strategy in 2022. Very strong tensions with journalistsshocking remarks, convictions by the courtsmeetings peppered with incidents sometimes violent… The former journalist had tried to take over Donald Trump's revenues.
In February 2022, the boss of Reconquête, then a presidential candidate, spoke with him for almost 40 minutes. “The media will find you brutal. Don’t give in,” the former tenant of the White House advised him.
Marine Le Pen has not adopted her vision. Despite an attempt at rapprochement which turned into a flop in 2017 during a trip by the presidential candidate to New York, the love story ultimately never took place. The RN was on minimum duty to welcome the return of Donald Trump to power, very far from the normalization strategy adopted by the RN deputies in the National Assembly.
