Donald Trump’s victory is an opportunity to be seized for Europe and the Defense industry…
Yes, you have to grab it. If we were surprised by the arrival of Donald Trump in 2016, today we must be able to react. And expect the United States to gradually or perhaps abruptly disengage from Europe. This will force Europeans to take responsibility for their own security.
gull“If Europe remains too slow, we will have the Third World War before we arrive at a European Defense.”
The Defense industry will have to wake up. The USA spends more than 900 billion dollars annually on Defense. The EU is 240 billion euros. Will we be able to keep up in the event of a drop in support for Ukraine?
The issue is not to spend as much as the USA. They have a global role, in the China Sea, in the Middle East, etc. But we must be able to secure our continent without help from the USA. 240 billion is good, but this spending is fragmented between uncoordinated states. We need to become more interoperable (so that weapons systems can work together, with potential exchanges of knowledge and technologies among other things, Editor’s note), that we develop a European defense. Staying at the national level is pointless.
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There is a lot of talk in this direction. And a few billion put on the table. But concretely, Germany still buys from the USA, there are dissensions between France and Germany… Can we achieve even just a European Defense industry?
This is where we need to shift gears. If we could accept the destabilization in Europe after the election of Trump in 2016, today we can no longer accept it. We will have to react. The Europeans were divided but managed to implement an unprecedented defense policy, with still limited budgets. Now we need to find money at EU level and strengthen these programs. Alone, even a country like France, or like the United Kingdom, could not keep up with Russia, with China, with today’s challenges.
Long-term financial support is needed to develop the industry…
The challenge is how to finance this. We could use a recovery fund, a loan. We mention the figure of 500 billion over 7 years. We could tax certain super profits, etc. It is possible to find money…
Is dialogue possible between countries that want to maintain their industries at home?
That’s the whole challenge. Member States want to keep their sovereignty but realize that they no longer have the size and mass necessary to be competitive. That said, with the election of Donald Trump, we will have to face reality: if there is one thing that the war in Ukraine teaches us, it is that we must be sovereign over the weapons we have at our disposal. . Eastern European countries did not want to cut ties with the USA in the past but they see that the USA is now dragging its feet in supporting Ukraine and putting restrictions on the use of its weapons. Can you imagine the Poles being forced to call Donald Trump to use the American weapons they bought to defend themselves from Russia? No… I think it will change on this side.
gull“If there is one thing that the war in Ukraine teaches us, it is that we must be sovereign over the weapons at our disposal”
Haven’t we already said this in 2022, during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Don’t we forget crises too quickly?
We should not expect a revolution, in fact. The EU is not making a revolution, it is taking small steps. Probably too slowly. And if Europe remains too slow, we will have the Third World War before we arrive at a European Defense. That would be stupid. But there is nevertheless an awareness since 2016.
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Is it financeable?
All European states are in debt. It’s not just Belgium or France. States will not succeed alone. We need to become aware and abandon a certain withdrawal into ourselves and this “national” sovereignism. It takes ambition and courage.
Reduce sovereignty at the national level but guarantee it at the European level…
Exactly, it should not be reduced but transferred. National sovereignty has not existed for a long time anyway, we are no longer competitive. We need European sovereignty.
There are already connections between French and Belgian industries and armies.
Belgian Defense has the disadvantage of spending less than other European countries as a percentage of GDP but has the advantage of having initiated much more developed cooperation with their neighbors. The Belgians are ahead and are an example in this regard. You have to integrate.
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Couldn’t buying US pose a problem, as with the Belgian choice to buy the American F-35? We are too dependent on the US, in terms of missiles, planes, communication systems…
We are completely at the mercy of the United States. Our defense is provided by the USA and the nuclear umbrella. And if the US does not want Belgium to take off its F-35s, they will remain grounded. You have to understand that. For example, the French would probably be in favor of the Ukrainians using the Scalp to carry out deep strikes against Russia. But the USA does not want to and can ban it, because of American components in these missiles. We must have authorization from Donald Trump…
Watch the full interview in the video above, taken from Mag Eco, the weekly economic show, first broadcast every Thursday on LN24.
