After the election of Donald Trump in the United States, the European market is worried about future protectionist measures by the American. In fact, he has already announced adding new taxes on exports.
In the US presidential election on November 5, Donald Trump was re-elected for a second term. Although he does not officially take office until next January, he has already announced new protectionist measures, including an increase in import taxes. This raises questions for Belgian companies: what will be the repercussions on their exports to the United States?
Limited impact, unless…
One of the main concerns concerns the possible introduction of import taxes of around 10%, particularly on sectors such as steel and agri-food. “This represents 7% of our exports to the United States, or just under 4 billion euros. The main products concerned are pharmaceutical products, which are generally spared from this type of measure. For us, the risk remains quite limited“, explains Baudouin de Hemptinne, economic advisor at AWEX, the Walloon Export Agency. “However, if Trump launches a full-blown trade war and imposes a 10% tax, then sectors like steel and food processing could be affected.
Another risk to take into account is the reduction in the number of temporary work visas, which could complicate access to the American market for Belgian companies wishing to develop there. For those already established in the United States, the situation seems stable for the moment, but new challenges could arise in the future.
Nearly 4 billion euros of goods exported
Despite these uncertainties, American industrial policy should not experience major upheavals, and strategic partnerships with players like John Cockerill do not seem threatened. Wallonia currently exports 3.7 billion euros worth of goods to the United States, mainly in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, which should not be directly impacted by these new taxes.
The United States is Belgium’s fourth trading partner, behind Germany, the Netherlands and France, and ahead of the United Kingdom. In 2023, Belgium exported more than 31 billion euros to the United States. However, a blanket tax of 10% or 20% on European imports would make European products more expensive for American companies, which could cause some sectors’ exports to fall by as much as a third.
On another front, the macroeconomic situation could offer opportunities. If inflation continues in the United States and the dollar weakens, this could favor European imports.
Nobody really knows what they’re going to do
“When it comes to geopolitics, Trump could have a considerable impact. For example, in 2016, AWEX opened an office in Iran, anticipating the lifting of sanctions and the opening of the market. But Trump came along and closed that market. What is he going to do in the Middle East, in Israel? These are questions that remain open. He’s made a lot of promises, but no one really knows what he’s going to do“, concludes Baudouin de Hemptinne.
For Belgian companies, the coming months will be marked by uncertainty, but it is still too early to assess the extent of the repercussions of this new presidency on their activities in the United States.
election of Donald Trump businesses
