This Tuesday, November 5, Americans are voting to nominate their next president after four years in office for Joe Biden, and the issues for Africa vary considerably depending on the future elected official. In an interview, Dr. Alioune Aboutalib Lô, researcher at the AKEM Center in Istanbul, deciphers the potential impacts of a victory for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump on relations between the United States and the African continent. Between diplomatic continuity, economic prospects and security challenges, the possible directions differ profoundly depending on the outcome of this election.
How could the election of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump influence diplomatic relations between the United States and African countries?
Generally speaking, US interest in Africa remains minimal compared to the issues and expectations. Whatever the Americans’ choice, there should be no major revolution in the African policy of the United States, which has placed its priorities elsewhere since the end of the Cold War. However, we can expect more commitment from Democrat Kamala Harris, who should remain in the same line as Joe Biden. During her tour of Africa in March 2023, notably in Ghana, Zambia and Tanzania, the American vice-president said she was “enthusiastic” about the future of Africa and American-African cooperation. This contrasts with Donald Trump, if we consider his first term, during which his political interest in Africa was almost non-existent, even though he launched his economic initiative in 2018 Prosper Africa to strengthen trade with the continent.
What consequences could the results of the US elections, whether for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, have on US trade and investment policies in Africa?
The most important will be AGOA, the renewal of which must be decided in 2025. It should be clarified that AGOA remains primarily a tool of coercive economic diplomacy (Economic Statecraft) since African countries which do not align with the vision American rights of human rights and democracy can be withdrawn, as was the case of Rwanda in 2018 (under Trump) or of Niger and Uganda in 2023. This policy should continue. Regarding investments, the 2022 US-Africa Summit helped restore the American desire to invest more in Africa, notably with the promise of a financial windfall of $55 billion. Kamala Harris, who also announced support for digitalization and innovation in Africa during her tour, should therefore be part of this same register. The United States is also keeping an eye on Chinese expansion in Africa and particularly wants to compete with Beijing in this sector, with investments in strategic infrastructure. We can already cite American support for Angola’s Lobito Corridor project, which will also be essential for the trade of raw materials in southern Africa. However, we can expect the same strategy of containment of China by the United States in Africa, with Donald Trump. Competition with China on the economic field is an obsession for the Republican. Its Prosper Africa initiative, launched to promote investments and trade with Africa, was notably to be seen in the context of this competition with China and a response to its “new Silk Roads (Belt and Road Initiative)” project. .
How are Kamala Harris and Donald Trump addressing security issues in Africa, and what impact could this have on U.S. cooperation in the fight against terrorism and transnational crime?
For the moment, this security aspect of American policy in Africa remains relegated to the background in the American campaign. As stated above, Africa is not necessarily the priority issue currently in this American electoral phase. But the fight against terrorism still remains of some importance for Washington. And in this perspective, the United States especially has concerns, particularly in relation to its military presence in the Sahel and competition from Russia. American troops were forced to leave Niger where they had important military bases between Niamey and Agadez. Today, the challenge is to stay in the region. Ivory Coast and Benin could welcome these troops but in a West African climate increasingly hostile to Western military presence. Russia has especially gained legitimacy in this region with now its presence in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, via its forces of the African Corps which is intended to put Wagner’s forces under the wing of the Kremlin. The new administration, whether under Trump or Harris, should have geopolitical responses to this new situation.
How could the diplomatic and economic priorities of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump shape US cooperation with African countries in terms of development, humanitarian aid and governance?
In general, Trump, who pays less attention to Africa, should probably be less careful about certain things, notably governance or human rights. Republicans are less critical on these issues too, even though Bush had turned that on its head. On the issue of humanitarian aid, however, Trump, who has a mercantilist perception of international relations, wanted to cut several funding earmarked for it during his first term. A subject that could come back to the Congress table and call into question certain projects in Africa. The investments also announced at the last US-Africa Summit to support the continent’s development could be reviewed by the Trump administration if it returns to power. However, where some Africans might prefer the Republican to Kamala Harris despite everything, is on the issue of LGBTQ contrary to our traditional and religious values. Kamala Harris, who says she is a great defender of this community, could further link American aid and investments to the promotion or decriminalization of homosexuality in African countries. On this issue, there is a fundamental civilizational divergence between Harris and several African countries, which will not exist with Trump who is rather conservative and even anti-LGBTQ. As in the more critical or more “paternalistic” tradition of Democrats, Kamala Harris should be more attentive to questions of democracy and respect for human rights.
AC/WHAT
