June 9 can save millions in Vaud and Geneva

The PS is asking through an initiative for a cap on the amount of health insurance premiums: a household should not devote more than 10% of its disposable income to it. The rest would be financed by the Confederation and the cantons. This would have a surprising effect for some.

Anna Wanner / ch media

No need to be a soothsayer to predict a Röstigraben during the next vote: the PS initiative for reducing bonuses is much better received in French-speaking Switzerland and in Ticino as well as in German-speaking Switzerland. This is not explained only by the fact that the cantons beyond Sarine are often more to the right on questions of social policy. For once, there are also concrete financial reasons.

The cantons of Geneva and Vaud, in the first place, would benefit massively from the new way of financing the reduction in premiums. They are already very generous in distributing subsidies. In 2020, Vaud dedicated around 500 million francs to low-income households, compared to 350 million in Geneva. If the initiative is accepted, the two French-speaking cantons would therefore have to pay less since the Confederation would now have to contribute to the costs.

Zurich (with 371 million francs) and Bern (with 278 million francs) also put their hands in their pockets in 2020 to support their policyholders. But if we take into account the number of inhabitants of each canton, French-speaking Switzerland and Ticino are well ahead, as shown in our table below. The only German-speaking exception: Basel-City.

If the initiative is accepted, the Confederation would be the most financially impacted, with the cantons having to cover a maximum of a third of the costs incurred. Ultimately, according to the Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), this would mean additional expenses of more than 3.7 billion francs for the Confederation. The cantons would have to pay an additional 805 million.

The currently generous cantons, Geneva and Vaud in the lead, will benefit from the Confederation’s spending: this will allow them to save hundreds of millions.

It is Bern who will have to pay the most

For the cantons which were hitherto stingy, the effect would be the opposite despite the aid from the Confederation: they should spend more money. An example calculation for the year 2020 from the Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) provides an idea: in the year of implementation, Bern is expected to spend around 160 million additional francs, Zurich 100 million , St. Gallen around 90 million, Aargau and Valais around 60 millionLucerne approximately 44 million.

In this context, we understand that a majority of cantonal financial directors clearly reject the initiative. But they are not arguing only because of the high amounts that would thus be owed. They also reject the initiative for federalist reasons: it would be an attack on cantonal autonomy. Each canton has established its own rules regarding social compensation. A national directive would unbalance the entire structure.

The exact distribution of funding and the amount that will actually be paid will depend on population growth and changes in premiums. But the way in which Parliament intends to implement the initiative is also decisive.

If the initiative is rejected by voters, the German-speaking cantons will still have to devote more money than today to reducing premiums. Indeed, in the event of no, the indirect counter-project will be automatically implemented. However, the amounts would be significantly lower. This also means for many policyholders that they will receive fewer premium reductions, if at all, contrary to what the PS initiative provides.

Translated and adapted by Tanja Maeder