Attal’s shadow risks darkening (a little more) the campaign of the Macronist candidate

POLICY – “I don’t know what (Gabriel Attal) will do. (…) There is a debate this week, that’s what matters most, between our head of the list and Mr. Bardella.” Tuesday April 30 on LCI, the spokesperson for the presidential camp campaign for the European elections Clément Beaune would have liked the questions to focus more on his candidate’s debate with the head of the RN list scheduled two days later. Alas, it’s still Gabriel Attal we’re talking about, the Prime Minister never far from the Renaissance campaign and its allies.

The face-to-face this Thursday, May 2 on BFMTV between Jordan Bardella, leading in the polls, and Valérie Hayer, number 2 (increasingly) far behind him, is the very first of its kind. Jordan Bardella has already debated one-on-one with Raphaël Glucksmann, but never with the leader of the presidential camp. The meeting is therefore far from being anecdotal.

However, it is another face-to-face, still hypothetical, which focuses attention: Gabriel Attal against Jordan Bardella. Is it confirmed? When ? On which channel ? To date, nothing is fixed. And neither of the two parties reacted to these confidences coming from government sources. But after two categorical refusals by Gabriel Attal to debate with Jordan Bardella, the Prime Minister’s about-face is striking. And jams the signal.

A debate that overshadows another

At the start of the campaign, Gabriel Attal got involved. It was he who launched Valérie Hayer during her first meeting in Lille on March 9. He also accompanied him on one of his first door-to-door visits, in his constituency of Hauts-de-Seine. He then retreated. The objective was then to increase the notoriety of the candidate, little known nationally. It is clear that this did not work.

However, two months later, neither the trips nor the first debates have at this stage made it possible to instill a positive dynamic into the Hayer list. Less than fifty days before the election, far from reaching the 20% threshold hoped for at the start, the presidential camp is slowly but surely declining week after week. The list is at 17% of voting intentions at the end of April in the Ipsos electoral survey with Cevipof, the Montaigne Institute, the Jean Jaurès Foundation and The world. Or 15 points less than the RN and only three points ahead of the PS/Public list. Red alert.

Under these conditions, the majority wants to remobilize the troops and is counting on the ” heavyweight “ of the government. Starting with number 1, Gabriel Attal himself – once presented in Macronie as “the anti-Bardella weapon”even if he defended it on BFMTV on April 18.

The Prime Minister has for him to be used to television sets, to not hold back his punches (and punchlines) on the National Rally and above all to have already faced Jordan Bardella during the between-rounds of the 2022 presidential election . Real assets against the president of the RN. But also additional pressure on Valérie Hayer who admitted at the beginning of March to be “in full media run-in” and lacking national notoriety. Unlike the Prime Minister who enjoys a popularity rating higher than that of the President of the Republic.

Counterproductive strategies?

At the same time, the timing of the leaks to the press, two days before the Hayer-Bardella debate, raises questions, as the risks are numerous for Valérie Hayer. First there is that of relegating his face-to-face with Bardella to the background. Then, the image of Valérie Hayer, leader rescued by the head of government, takes a hit. While the following question arises: does the majority anticipate a poor performance to the point of already preparing the return match with the Prime Minister?

Result: the context does not work in favor of Valérie Hayer. Especially since the candidate from the presidential camp must also deal with a Prime Minister who defends a political line leaning to the right, with announcements on authority, youth and security. This, while she herself multiplied at the start of the campaign the elements of language to retain the center-left electorate, tempted to switch towards Raphaël Glucksmann. Here again, the signal is not clear.

And once again, as the campaign enters its last month and the curves do not rise, it is the strategy of the presidential camp which is called into question. On April 30, Nathalie Loiseau, outgoing MEP and spokesperson, reiterated her regret that her group had “ talked too much about our adversaries and not at all enough about what we have done over the past 5 years.” Before splitting a ” advice “ to his colleague in Strasbourg and leader: “Do not go after Bardella but rather impose your story on her, who she is, what she has done, what we want to do.” Clément Beaune calls for us to go beyond the “casting” from the list to focus on “ the vision we have for Europe ». Easier said than done when a Prime Minister, majority leader and the most popular figure in the government, decides to enter the arena.

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