AAfter having roundly rejected, in July, the candidacy of Lucie Castets, proposed by the parties making up the New Popular Front (NFP), and then having tried in vain, over the last two weeks, to detach the Socialist Party (PS) from this alliance, Emmanuel Macron only had to turn to his right to find a tenant at Matignon, but also to the extreme right to ensure that he could count on a potential majority. It is too early to know whether Michel Barnier’s choice will be enough to seal a lasting alliance between the Republican right and the presidential camp. It is clear, however, that even counting on the twenty-two deputies from the Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories group, or even on the seven non-registered members, the survival of the new government will now be in the hands of the National Rally (RN), since, by counting very broadly, Michel Barnier can a priori only count on the support of a maximum of 242 deputies, very far from the absolute majority of 289 elected members out of the 577 who make up the National Assembly.
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The appointment of Michel Barnier therefore not only turns its back on the political force that came out on top in the legislative elections, but it also marks the end of the republican front that, as best it could, the President of the Republic accepted during the legislative elections of 30 June and 7 July after having already benefited from it in 2017 and 2022. It de facto opens the way to a government supported by the extreme right, as has been the case in Sweden since 2022.
Blaming the PS, as the Macronists were quick to do, is hardly convincing. Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to comply with parliamentary logic, which implied appointing a prime minister from the coalition that came out on top in the elections, can be explained above all by his refusal to accept any questioning of his economic and social policy. It has had the effect of removing responsibility from the parties and parliamentary groups and forcing them to stick to their positions.
The concessions strategy
Putting oneself under the thumb of the RN rather than that of the NFP can of course be understood from an ideological point of view: the economic and social demands put forward by the RN appear to be very far behind those of the NFP; if certain measures in its program, such as the reduction of VAT on fuel or the indexation of pensions on inflation, are very expensive, Jordan Bardella has constantly reminded us, during the legislative campaign, that the RN would be able to take budgetary constraints into account. Above all, the RN, which counts many business leaders, artisans and traders in its ranks, is not very critical of supply-side policy; it does not hesitate to support new deductions of social security contributions or taxes for businesses.
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