Global stock markets were in the green on Monday, after a week of decline marked by mixed US employment indicators, and were looking ahead to US inflation figures and the ECB meeting. The Paris Stock Exchange gained 0.99%, while the London Stock Exchange gained 1.09%. In Frankfurt, the Dax index rose 0.77%. On Wall Street, US markets were also up, with the Nasdaq up 0.97%, the S&P 500 up 1.08% and the Dow Jones 1.33% at 16:00 GMT.
“The weekend is over, investors have come to their senses and are now making cheap purchases” after a decline which “was not justified” last week, explains Philippe Cohen, portfolio manager for Kiplink Finances. After a bad employment figure that increased fears of a hard landing for the American economy, the markets ended in the red on Friday, at the end of a week marked by fears of a recession in the United States.
“Overall, last week’s numbers illustrate an economy that is slowing, but not falling over the cliff.”says Jonas Goltermann, an analyst for Capital Economics. Especially since the movements of the last few days have been “accented” by a level of liquidity “abnormally low” for several months, says Christopher Dembik, investment advisor at Pictet AM. This week “Investors are looking more towards the evolution of inflation”explains Andreas Lipkow, independent analyst.
The question for investors is whether the August U.S. consumer price index (CPI), due Wednesday, “changes the Federal Reserve’s view on whether to opt for a quarter-point or half-point cut”at the institution’s meeting on September 17 and 18, underlines Art Hogan, of B. Riley Wealth Management.
The probability given by market participants to a half-point cut in the Fed’s key rate in mid-September has fallen from almost 60% on Friday to 25% now. On the bond market, the interest rate on US bonds was stable around 1605 GMT, after having risen slightly earlier. The 10-year yield stood at 3.70%. The second point of attention this week will be the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.
It is widely assumed by markets that it will make a second rate cut of 0.25 percentage points, but it is rather what will happen beyond the September meeting that “is not yet clear”estimates Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank.
Also readAfter US employment, the Paris Stock Exchange tries to move forward
Tech is getting its colors back
Technology sector stocks, the first victims of the fall plunge, are accompanying the recovery of global markets. At 15:58 GMT, Nvidia (+1.92%) and Qualcomm (+0.90%) were in demand. The American Tesla, which had marked time last week, gained 2.16%. In Europe, STMicroelectronics (+1.08%) and Infineon (+0.88%) ended higher.
Sports equipment maker Adidas shares fell 3.04% in Frankfurt after a pessimistic Barclays rating on demand in China and fears of the effects of stronger competition. British luxury group Burberry also lost 4.86% in London, after an unfavorable rating from Barclays. The stock has lost nearly 60% since the beginning of the year, weighed down for months by a lack of global appetite for high-end products and unfortunate strategic choices.
The dollar was rising: around 15:55 GMT, the American currency appreciated against the euro, which dropped 0.37% to 1.1043 dollars, and also rose 0.45% against the yen to 142.95 yen to the dollar. On the oil side, the price of a barrel of American WTI gained 0.31% to 67.98 dollars. That of Brent from the North Sea fell 0.10% to 71.16 dollars after having “fell 9.82% last week, posting its worst weekly performance since October 2023”Deutsche Bank analysts point out. Bitcoin rose 1.86% to $55,389.
