Will the latest pension reform emerge unscathed from the Barnier era? – Libération

Will the pension reform pass this fall? And if so, in what state? The next few weeks will be decisive for the text that enshrined the legal retirement age at 64 in law, and which was adopted by 49.3 in 2023 against a massive social mobilization. Of course, the new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, is not in favor of a return to 62, quite the contrary: he advocated a legal retirement age of 65 when he campaigned for the Les Républicains (LR) nomination for the 2022 presidential election. And if Emmanuel Macron chose him, it is in particular because he knew that he would protect his cursed reform, which the head of state does not want to see unraveled in any way.

However, a certain number of realities are imposed on the new occupant of Matignon. The first, and the most essential: with the cumulative votes of the 193 deputies of the New Popular Front (NFP) and the 126 of the National Rally (RN), two political forces that advocate a return to 62 years, the National Assembly can theoretically adopt a law of repeal. “I commit to the French people: by the end of the year, in one way or another, […] The Assembly will have repealed the pension reform,” said the rebellious president of the Assembly’s finance committee, Eric Coquerel, on France Info this Monday morning.

“Respect the budgetary framework”

Far from ignoring this threat, the new Prime Minister extended a hand to opponents of the reform by stating on TF1 on Friday evening that he wanted “open the debate on improving this law for the most vulnerable people.” An expression aimed primarily at the millions of employees suffering from hardship. In fact, the few efforts included in this area in the 2023 law were singularly timid, since they were limited to marginally improving the professional prevention account (C2P), which allows, under strict conditions, to acquire points to retrain or leave up to two years before the legal age. An Investment Fund for Prevention was also opened in March to finance actions in companies.

Michel Barnier wants to have these discussions “with social partners”, who had hardly been listened to – at least as regards employee unions – during the development of the 2023 reform. But he insisted on the fact that “respect the budgetary framework”, which automatically rules out the possibility of returning to the legal age of 64, even though the pension system is still expected to be in deficit by 0.4% of GDP in 2030 despite the reform, according to the Pensions Advisory Council.

However, this way of framing the debates itself gives rise to debate: “We need to address the elephant in the room, which is the 64-year-old,” replied Marylise Léon, the general secretary of the CFDT, on France Inter two days later. And at the same time posed a prerequisite: “If we say that we are reopening discussions, at the very least we are suspending the reform.” This would imply that the legal retirement age remains frozen at 62 and a half years for the duration of the discussion, whereas it is due to increase to 62 years and three quarters on 1 January 2025. Similarly, the number of quarters required to retire at full rate would remain frozen at 169 (42 years and three months), instead of increasing to 170. This would mechanically result in a loss of revenue for the scheme.

Mobilization of unions

However, the proposal from Marylise Léon, a union at the forefront of the 2023 mobilization, also resembles an outstretched hand, with the number 1 of the CFDT not mentioning a pure and simple repeal. “The CFDT is still campaigning to return to retirement at 62,” she recalled a few days before the appointment of Michel Barnier. In a press release this Monday, the Unsa recalls that this is also its position and adds that “If a discussion opens, then for the UNSA, all subjects must be addressed including the postponement of the retirement age.” Following the appointment of Michel Barnier, but before his invitation to reopen discussions, both FO and the CGT reiterated their desire to‘”repeal” pension reform. The demand will also be at the heart of a day of interprofessional mobilization organized by the CGT, the FSU and Solidaires on Tuesday, October 1.

But the fate of the reform will also be played out, and perhaps above all, on a different terrain than these possible discussions and social mobilizations. On October 31, the RN plans to take advantage of its parliamentary niche in the Assembly to bring “the return of the legal retirement age to 62 and forty-two years of contributions”, according to the leader of its deputies, Marine Le Pen. Nothing indicates, however, that the final blow will be delivered on this occasion. This Monday, Eric Coquerel seemed to exclude that the NFP would vote for the National Front bill: “The National Rally has not been very forward in the fight against pension reform, so giving them this gift, hello.” He is instead banking on bills coming from the left and put to the vote in “other niches” (insoumise, socialist, communist, Liot or ecologist) and amendments to the future social security financing bill (PLFSS). “This is the battle we intend to fight,” confides, on the CGT side, the confederal secretary in charge of the file, Denis Gravouil. According to him, “the reform can be invalidated by a PLFSS, since it was adopted by a corrective PLFSS.”

Bill or amendments, any project to return to 62 years will be the subject of a fierce battle in the Assembly concerning its admissibility. In April 2023, the president of the chamber, Yaël Braun-Pivet, had thus prevented the examination of a bill to repeal the reform put forward by the Liot group. And in the event of adoption, the Senate, which is predominantly right-wing, would then constitute a major obstacle in the parliamentary shuttle. But the political blow would be harsh for the Macronist camp and for the Barnier government. It would serve to remind Emmanuel Macron that a year and a half after the promulgation of his text, the page has in no way been turned.