« Systematic drifts » construction site costs and deadlines, « poor profitability » of theEPR from Flamanville, « accumulation of risks and constraints [qui] could lead to program failure EPR2 »… The Court of Auditors presented to the press a salty report on the sector EPRTuesday January 14 in Paris.
In particular, she delivers a new upward assessment of the total cost ofEPR de Flamanville, now estimated at 20.4 billion euros (in 2015 value), or 1.3 billion more than its 2020 estimate. The initial estimate was 3.3 billion euros, or six times less than these 20.4 billion.
In their 2020 report, the magistrates of rue Cambon had asked EDF to calculate the forecast profitability of theEPR of Flamanville, whatEDF refused to do « deliberately and persistently ».
The profitability of theEPR de Flamanville would reach 2 %
As a result, they took out the calculators themselves. Assuming an operating life of sixty years, a load factor (the ratio between the energy actually produced and that which it would have produced if it had operated at its nominal power) [1] — of 85 % and a selling price of 90 euros per megawatt hour, the profitability of theEPR de Flamanville would reach 2 %.
« It is lower than the cost of capital thatEDF was required to make commitments, whether through equity or debt. A project whose profitability is lower than its borrowing cost is problematic. It's not profitable »decided a magistrate during the press briefing. L'EPR de Flamanville was connected to the network on December 21, twelve years late.
Read also: L’EPR from Flamanville finally on its way, after 20 years of setbacks
Delays on international construction sites
The projects carried out by EDF outside French borders are hardly any more. In their report, the magistrates of the Court of Auditors warn of « systematic deviations from construction sites in terms of costs and deadlines »whether they are in China (Taishan), Finland (Olkiluoto) or Great Britain (Hinkley Point and Sizewell). They lingered on the ordeal of the construction site of the two EPR from Hinkley Point, United Kingdom.
« Hinkley Point's cost-to-complete estimate increased by 30 % between June 2022 and January 2024, to reach between 31 and 34 billion euros in 2015 value, noted Pierre Moscovici, first president of the Court of Auditors. Furthermore, the commissioning objective was again pushed back between 2029 and 2031, after having already been postponed from 2022 to June 2027. » Slippages which, coupled with the departure of the Chinese group CGNreduced the results ofEDF in 2023.
The British shipyardEPR of Hinkley Point is experiencing setbacks. This power plant, with its two reactors, will be the most expensive ever built on Earth.
Wikimedia / CC BY 2.0 / Mark Robinson
Consequently, the Court of Auditors recommends « not approve a final investment decisionEDF In [le projet de nouvelle centrale nucléaire britannique] Sizewell C before obtaining a significant reduction in its financial exposure in [la centrale britannique en cours de construction] Hinkley Point C ». Doubtful in the face of the relentlessness ofEDF to win the tender for the construction of four reactors at Dukovany in the Czech Republic, it recommends « ensure that any new international project in the nuclear field generates quantified gains and does not delay the program schedule EPR2 In France ».
Uncertain financing
Announced in 2022 by Emmanuel Macron, this program EPR2 French consists of the construction of three pairs ofEPR « new generation » in Penly (Seine-Maritime), Gravelines (North) and Bugey (Ain), possibly supplemented by four other pairs. Barely launched, it has already seen its estimated costs drift.
« In February 2022, the government reported a construction cost of 51.7 billion euros in 2020 value in the so-called “overnight” median scenario, that is to say excluding financing costs. The update of the costing presented in December 2023 suggested a cost of 67.4 billion euros in 2020 value, an increase of 30 % under unchanged economic conditions and excluding the effect of inflation »noted Mr. Moscovici, who speaks of a cost « likely to exceed 100 billion euros ». EDF was expected to deliver a new estimate of the cost of the project at the end of 2024, which was not done.
« Delay in design, absence of a completed quote and financing plan »
Already, the possible commissioning of the first pair has been postponed between 2039 and 2044. On the financing side, there is great uncertainty. Pending a commitment from the State, EDF planned to lower the 2025 budget allocated to the preparatory work of its six future EPR2 from 2 billion euros to 1.1 to 1.3 billion euros, revealed the daily The Echoes.
For the magistrates of rue Cambon, it is urgent… not to rush. « The program EPR2 remaining marked by a design delay, an absence of a completed estimate and a financing plan whileEDF remains very heavily indebted »we read in the report.
Read also: Budget 2025 : le grand « vague » on the cost of nuclear power
In its response, the Ministry of Ecological Transition approved the recommendation of the Court of Auditors to secure the financing of EPR2 before making the final investment decision. On the other hand, he defends the launch of international projects: « It should not beEDFand more broadly the French industrial sector, is deprived of export opportunities. »
Asked by Reporterre, EDF also contradicts the Court of Auditors by ensuring that « the prospects for development outside France contribute directly to the competitiveness of the program and provide benefits for series construction ».
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