Key information
- Ukraine is prepared to continue allowing the transit of Russian gas, but only if Russia is not paid before the end of the war.
- If Russia supplies gas without immediate payment, Ukraine could consider extending the transit agreement.
- Azerbaijan could potentially supply gas through Ukrainian infrastructure, but only if it is not rebranded Russian fuel.
Ukraine is willing to continue allowing the transit of Russian gas through its territory, but on one condition: Moscow will not receive payment for the fuel until the war ends. As the conflict continues, Russia has maintained gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine, in line with a multibillion-euro deal reached in 2019. However, kyiv has declared its intention not to renew this. contract when it expires at the end of 2024. Slovakia, one of the recipient countries, is actively seeking to extend the agreement.
Elimination of tensions and alternative suppliers
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would not extend the transit of Russian gas because it would generate additional revenue for Russia using Ukrainian lives and territory. He did, however, offer a potential alternative: If Russia was willing to supply gas without immediate payment until the end of the war, Ukraine might consider it.
The loss of Russian market share
Russia, previously Europe's main natural gas supplier, has lost almost all of its European customers as the EU strives to reduce its dependence on Moscow. The Nord Stream gas pipeline, destroyed in 2022, has cut off another vital route for Russian gas exports. Now the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline – a crucial artery connecting Russia and Europe via Ukraine – is set to close at the end of the year.
Possible alternatives
Mr Zelensky criticized Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico for emphasizing economic concerns rather than the human cost of war, saying discussions about finances during a conflict seemed insensitive given the loss of life human. He proposed an alternative: Ukraine would be willing to facilitate the transit of gas from another country through its infrastructure to reach Europe, provided there is absolute assurance that it is not simply a matter of 'a renamed Russian fuel.
Speculation has arisen regarding the possibility of Azerbaijan supplying gas through this same infrastructure. However, Zelensky rejected these plans, saying any scenario involving Russia as a source would be unacceptable. The EU reports that Slovakia received 69 percent of its gas imports and Austria 60 percent from Russia in 2023.
Reaction from Moscow and speculation on the future of Gazprom
Moscow condemned Ukraine's decision to terminate the deal, saying kyiv was betraying its European allies by disrupting affordable energy supplies. Mr. Putin said that while a new gas transit deal with Ukraine was unlikely, Russia would persevere on this path. He said Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, would survive despite the financial challenges it faces due to the European Union's drastic reduction in Russian gas purchases.
History and context
After World War II, Soviet and post-Soviet leaders spent decades building an energy network linking Russia to Germany, Europe's largest economy. At its peak, Russia supplied 35 percent of Europe's gas. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Gazprom has lost market share to Norway, the United States and Qatar. Putin says Western sanctions against Russian LNG are a tactic to protect their own suppliers from competition. He recognizes the challenges posed by these sanctions, but says he is confident in Russia's ability to meet them.
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