Recent discussions revive hopes of an agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and a release of hostages in Gaza, perhaps before Donald Trump arrives at the White House, despite persistence of blocking points.
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Reasons for optimism
Several diplomats tell AFP that the recent threats by the American president-elect in the event that all the hostages held in Gaza are not released before his return to power on January 20 have had an effect.
“The ongoing negotiations have made it possible to resolve most of the points of disagreement,” a Hamas official told AFP on Wednesday, referring to a “finalization of details” in Qatar.
The day before, the United States had declared its “cautious optimism” about the possibility of such a ceasefire agreement and the exchange of captive hostages in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
“Hamas is now more flexible, it is the leaders of the diaspora movement who lead the negotiations, and they are much more pragmatic” than the leaders of the movement in Gaza, a diplomatic source told AFP, judging Hamas weakened. after more than a year of war, marked by the death of several of its main leaders, killed in Gaza or assassinated in Lebanon or Iran.
The Palestinian movement has also lost the support of Hezbollah, which maintained a front against Israel on its northern border, since the truce that came into force at the end of November between the Lebanese Islamist movement and Israel. According to a diplomat, this would push Hamas to want an agreement “before the end of the year”.
What the deal could look like
During the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, 251 people were taken hostage. Of this total, 96 remain detained in Gaza, 34 of whom were declared dead by the army.
Hamas officials spoke in interviews with AFP of an agreement that would take place in three stages, as had already been previously discussed.
During the first phase, which would last six weeks, Israeli civilians and soldiers would be released in exchange for “hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.”
According to the same sources, Israel would withdraw from the Philadelphia Corridor (strip of land controlled by the Israeli army along the border between Gaza and Egypt) its forces located “west of the Rafah border crossing”.
Israeli forces would also “partially withdraw” from the Netzarim corridor, another axis controlled by the Israeli army and cutting the Gaza Strip from east to west. They would also “gradually” leave urban centers and refugee camps in the Gaza Strip.
Finally, this first phase would see the gradual return of displaced residents of Gaza City and the north of the territory, under the supervision of the Israeli army.
A second phase would lead to the release of Israeli soldiers in exchange for “a certain number” of Palestinian prisoners, “including at least one hundred sentenced to long sentences”.
During this phase, Israel would complete its military withdrawal, but maintain forces in the border areas east and north of Gaza City.
In the final phase of the agreement, “the war would be officially declared over,” and reconstruction efforts would begin.
Hamas also wants the reopening of crossing points, notably that of Rafah, on the border with Egypt, which “would be entrusted to the Palestinian Authority, in coordination with Egypt and the European Union, in accordance with the 2005 agreement” – which several diplomatic sources contacted by AFP consider complicated, if not impossible.
But none of this is confirmed at this stage on the Israeli side. “The less said, the better,” an Israeli government spokesperson told AFP on Wednesday, refusing to comment on the agreement.
Blocking points and uncertainties
Despite intense diplomatic efforts, no truce has been concluded since the one-week truce at the end of November 2023.
Until then, the main sticking point in the negotiations was whether or not the ceasefire would be permanent.
If Hamas communicates, many questions remain about what Israel is ready to accept as a precise timetable for withdrawing its troops from Gaza, or about the future of areas of Palestinian territory now transformed into militarized perimeters by the army.
And Hamas’ statements today seem to contradict certain Israeli positions, such as Mr. Netanyahu’s repeated statements opposing a withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Philadelphia corridor.
Furthermore, if a Hamas executive assures AFP that “Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, the United Nations and the United States will be the guarantors of the application of the agreement”, none of these actors did not confirm it.
As for the governance of Gaza after the war, it is still widely debated, including within the Palestinian ruling class.
