China continues to develop its nuclear arsenal at a sustained pace. A Pentagon report reveals a meteoric increase in the number of Chinese operational warheads since 2020. This rise in power raises many questions about Beijing’s ambitions and the risks for global stability…
China is accelerating the development of its nuclear arsenal, an alarming observation highlighted by a recent Pentagon report. According to this document, the number of operational nuclear warheads held by Beijing has almost tripled since 2020, reaching 600 units by mid-2024. A meteoric increase which raises many questions about China’s real ambitions and the risks for global security.
A rapid and diversified rise in power
According to information provided by a senior American defense official, the Chinese arsenal now includes a wide range of systems ranging from precision strike missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles. This diversification would provide China with more strategic options based on escalation scenarios, a notable departure from its traditional nuclear doctrine.
The frenetic pace of this expansion worries Washington. The Pentagon estimates that the stock of Chinese warheads could exceed a thousand by 2030, a symbolic threshold which would call into question the balance of nuclear powers on a planetary scale.
Towards a new Chinese nuclear doctrine?
This nuclear arms race would be part of the geopolitical ambitions of Xi Jinping, who aspires to shake up the international order and assert Chinese power. As the American report points out:
China is seeking to accumulate power to achieve what Xi Jinping has called the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049.
By multiplying warheads and diversifying its vectors, Beijing would seek to make up for its capability gap vis-à-vis the United States. The objective would be to be able to carry out nuclear strikes on American territorya capacity so far limited for the Chinese arsenal.
A worrying arms race
This rise in Chinese nuclear arsenal raises serious concerns about the risks of a new arms race in the Asia-Pacific region:
- A China with a substantial and diversified arsenal could encourage other regional powers, such as India or Pakistan, to accelerate their own programs.
- The multiplication of nuclear actors would make the strategic balance in Asia more complex and unstable.
- An incident or escalation, even unintentional, would have catastrophic consequences on a global scale.
Faced with these challenges, the international community will have to redouble diplomatic efforts to contain the risks and preserve the non-proliferation treaties. The role of the UN and the great powers will be crucial to maintain a constructive dialogue with Beijing and avoid a dangerous spiral.
Because if history has taught us one thing, it is that arms races rarely end in peace and stability. Let us hope that wisdom will prevail over the temptation of over-armament, for the good of all humanity.
