In 2024, housing prices continued to fall across France. According to a survey by Notaries of France published Monday December 16, 2024, this downward trend is confirmed in the majority of large cities, with significant impacts on the real estate purchasing power of the French.
In France, the real estate market is experiencing a phase of readjustment, marked by price drops housing in almost all major cities. According to data from the Notaries of France, the prices of old apartments fell by 4% in France in the third quarter of 2024. Nantes et Lyon, prices fell by almost 9%, while other big cities like Bordeaux et Marseille recorded declines between 6 et 8% . On the other hand, Nice, the second most expensive city after Parisshows a slight increase in 0,1% prices.
This general decline in housing prices is mainly due to the increase in the interest rate on real estate loans. These have reached historically high levels, which has limited access to credit for many buyers. In 2024, the volume of real estate transactions carried out has in fact fallen by -17% to reach 780,000 sales.
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Real estate purchasing power clearly evolving
One of the most striking effects of this drop in prices is the evolution of real estate purchasing power. Although prices are falling in many cities, rising interest rates have moderated gains for buyers. For example, a monthly payment of 800 euros over 20 years now allows you to buy 111 m² in Saint-Étienne, either 2 m² more than in 2023 et 15 m² more than in 2021. This favorable trend is found in cities like Grenoble, Rennes, Lyon et Nantes where the purchasable surface area expands, making these cities more accessible.
However, the reality remains very different in large metropolises where access to housing remains extremely limited despite price drops. For example, with the same 800 euros monthly, it would only be possible to purchase 12 m² in Paris, 27 m² in Nice, 41 m² in Marseille and Toulouse or 60 m² au Havre. This shows that while prices are falling in some cities, they remain high in high-demand areas, limiting real estate purchasing power in these regions.
What are the forecasts for 2025?
Experts remain cautious regarding the prospects for the real estate market in France for 2025. If a rapid recovery seems unlikelysome signs of stabilization are expected, notably thanks to a possible drop in borrowing rates. After reaching a historic peak of 4% in 2023, interest rates could reduce in 2025, which would revive demand in the real estate market in France.
The European Central Bank (ECB), which has adopted a tighter monetary policy in recent years, could lower its rates to 2% in 2025according to analyst forecasts. However, the resumption of transactions will depend on the evolution of borrowing rates and buyer confidence. Waiting for, house prices expected to remain relatively stable in major cities, according to forecasts.
Median price per square meter in major French cities in 2024
| Ville | Price per square meter | Evolution over one year |
|---|---|---|
| Paris | 9 490 euros | -6,7% |
| Nice | 4 720 euros | +0,1% |
| Lyon | 4 500 euros | -8,6% |
| Bordeaux | 4 250 euros | -7,5% |
| Lille | 3 640 euros | -7,0% |
| Rennes | 3 590 euros | -5,2% |
| Nantes | 3 450 euros | -9,2% |
| Strasbourg | 3 360 euros | -3,8% |
| Montpellier | 3 270 euros | -3,8% |
| Toulouse | 3 200 euros | -2,0% |
| Marseille | 3 070 euros | -3,0% |
| Toulon | 2 560 euros | -1,3% |
| Reims | 2 520 euros | -0,6% |
| Orléans | 2 500 euros | -6,3% |
| Dijon | 2 500 euros | -3,6% |
| Grenoble | 2 400 euros | -7,1% |
| Le Havre | 2 160 euros | -4,3% |
| Saint-Étienne | 1 140 euros | -6,5% |
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