Citrus production in Morocco is expected to record, according to BMI-Fitch Solutions, double-digit growth for the 2024-2025 season, driven by favorable climatic conditions and innovations in irrigation. However, the sector faces persistent challenges, particularly linked to international competition.
The citrus sector, pillar of Moroccan agro-industry, is showing signs of recovery after several poor performances due to prolonged drought. Forecasts for the 2024-2025 season anticipate significant increases in production volumes, thanks to relatively more favorable rainfall and the adoption of modern irrigation techniques. However, despite these positive prospects, the sector remains faced with structural challenges, particularly in terms of international competitiveness and water resources management.
Growth supported by favorable climatic conditions
Fitch Solutions forecasts a 17.1% increase in orange production, reaching 960,000 tonnes for the 2024-2025 season. Mandarins and clementines should increase by 15.8%, totaling 1.1 million tonnes, while the production of lemons and limes would increase by 12.5%, reaching 45,000 tonnes. This performance is largely attributed to improved rainfall and increased use of innovative irrigation techniques, such as plastic mulching, which reduces water consumption.
Despite these promising figures, overall production will remain below the records reached in 2018-2019. This period marked a historic peak for the sector before several years of drought had a significant impact on agricultural yields.
A strategic sector facing a decline in its market share
Citrus fruits represent a key driver of the Moroccan agricultural economy. In 2023, the sector’s exports generated $457 million, or 1.1% of national exports. However, this share decreased compared to 2014, when it reached 1.6%. The contribution of citrus fruits to total agricultural exports is also declining, from 12.5% in 2014 to 7.7% in 2023.
-Internationally, Morocco is losing ground. In 2004, it ranked sixth in the world among citrus exporters with a 3.8% market share. In 2023, it fell to ninth place, representing only 2.8% of global exports. This trend was confirmed in the first half of 2024, with a drop in exports of 7.1% compared to 2023 and 37.4% compared to 2022.
Water stress, a major obstacle to production
Water stress poses a critical threat to agricultural production in Morocco. According to the FAO, the country has a water stress level of 50.8%, compared to a global average of 18.6%. Agriculture alone consumes 31.6% of renewable water resources, a figure well above the global average of 6.7%.
To alleviate these constraints, the government launched the “Generation Green 2020-2030” strategy in 2020, aiming to modernize agriculture and promote sustainable resource management. This program includes initiatives such as water desalination and the encouragement of agricultural practices adapted to climate challenges.
Competitiveness to be preserved in the face of market fluctuations
Despite the difficulties, Moroccan citrus exports stand out for their high unit value, reaching $974/ton in 2023. This figure outperforms competitors like Turkey ($576/ton) or South Africa ($705/ton). ton), but remains lower than Spain (1,289 dollars/ton) and Italy (1,415 dollars/ton).
However, economists at BMI-Fitch Solutions warn against fluctuations in exchange rates. A planned appreciation of the dirham in 2025, coupled with a depreciation of the euro and the Turkish lira, could strengthen the competitiveness of European and Turkish exports to the detriment of Moroccan citrus fruits.
