Businesses operating in the Kingdom have identified the green transition and uncertain economic conditions as the driving forces that will shape the transformation of the labor market between now and 2030. Skills gaps and internal resistance to change are seen as the main obstacles.
Technological change, geoeconomic fragmentation, economic uncertainty, demographic changes, green transition… By 2030, several macroeconomic trends are expected to transform the global labor market according to the “Future of jobs report 2025” report from the World Economic Forum which identified five major trends at the origin of this transformation.
The authors of the report collected the views of more than 1,000 employers representing nearly 14 million workers in 22 sectors of activity and 55 economies around the world, including Morocco. Companies operating in the Kingdom have identified the ecological transition and uncertain economic conditions as the main driving forces for the change planned for 2030.
Skills gaps and internal resistance to change are seen as the main obstacles. Moroccan employers expect growing demand for skills in AI and big data, creative thinking, leadership and social influence over the next five years.
Talent availability could benefit from a greater focus on leveraging diverse talent pools, a workforce strategy considered by 24% of companies in the country, compared to 47% globally.
At the same time, we learn that 86% of companies plan to prioritize young people as part of their diversity, equity and inclusion measures, which is significantly higher than the global average.
Net growth of 78 million jobs
Overall, by extrapolating the forecasts of the surveyed sample about the future of employment and current trends for the period 2025-2030, the “Future of jobs 2025” report expects a net growth of 78 million jobs globally by 2030.
This growth is the result of the creation of around 170 million new positions, which is equivalent to 14% of current total employment. Demographic changes will have a direct impact on the global job supply, since geographic regions with a significant demographic dividend, such as India and sub-Saharan African countries, will provide nearly two-thirds of new entrants to the job market. work in the years to come.
Furthermore, the demographic dynamics underway in the Middle East and North Africa inspire employers in these areas with great optimism regarding the availability of talent. We thus record levels of optimism of 39% in Egypt, 38% in Morocco and 31% in Bahrain, with an improvement in recruitment conditions by 2030. On the other hand, employers in European economies anticipate increasing difficulties in terms of talent availability.
Skill instability
Regarding forecasts of job creation and loss which are based on responses from employers participating in the Future of Jobs Survey and employment data from the International Labor Organization (ILO), structural changes in the labor market will affect front-line positions which are expected to increase.
These include, in particular, agricultural workers and construction workers in addition to sellers and agri-food workers. Care economy jobs, such as nursing, social work and counseling professionals and personal care and social care, are also expected to increase significantly over the next five years, alongside education and higher education.
Also, technology-related jobs are the fastest growing in percentage terms, including big data specialists, fintech engineers, AI and software specialists in addition to application developers. Roles related to ecology and energy transition, including autonomous and electric vehicle specialists, environmental engineers and renewable energy engineers, are also among the high-growth positions.
Furthermore, office and secretarial jobs are expected to see the biggest decline. Businesses also expect that the positions experiencing the fastest decline include postal service, bank tellers and data entry clerks. On average, workers can expect the equivalent of 39% of their current skills to be transformed or become obsolete over the period 2025-2030.
However, this measure of “skills instability” has slowed compared to previous editions of the report, from 44% in 2023 to a high point of 57% in 2020, as a result of the pandemic context in 2020.
This finding could be explained by the fact that a growing share of workers (50%) having followed training, requalification or development measures, compared to 41% in the 2023 edition of the report. Along these lines, countries in the Middle East and North Africa predict that less than 50% of their workforce will need training by 2030.
Also, geographic differences persist as companies headquartered in the Middle East and North Africa are less likely to conduct pay equity assessments (23%).
Grand obstacle
Skills gaps are considered the biggest barrier to business transformation, with 63% of employers considering them a major barrier for the period 2025-2030. As a result, 85% of employers surveyed plan to prioritize upskilling their human capital and 70% of them plan to hire staff while 40% plan to reduce less competent and relevant staff and 50% plan to move staff from a declining role to a growing role.
Indeed, supporting the health and well-being of employees should be one of the priorities for attracting talent. In figures, 64% of employers surveyed consider this to be a decisive factor in increasing the availability of talent.
By 2030, just over half of employers (52%) plan to allocate a greater share of their revenue to wages, and only 8% expect this share to decrease. Pay strategies are primarily driven by goals to align wages with worker productivity and performance and by competition to retain talent and skills.
Finally, half of employers plan to reorient their business in response to AI, two-thirds plan to hire talent with specific AI skills, while 40% plan to reduce their workforce where AI can automate tasks.
Yassine Saber / ECO Inspirations
