Still fewer babies in France: a further drop in births should be recorded in 2024, accentuating a trend that began several years ago. What does this decline imply for the country? Update on its consequences.
What is the situation?
From January to November 2024, the number of births decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period a year earlier, INSEE said on Tuesday, which is due to unveil the annual report next week.
This decline is part of a longer-term trend: since 2011, the number of births has fallen each year in France, with the exception of 2021, which experienced a slight rebound after the confinements linked to Covid-19.
The number of births is now at its lowest since the end of the Second World War, which provoked numerous political reactions last year and led President Emmanuel Macron to plead for a “demographic rearmament” of the country.
Why do we care about the birth rate?
France has the particularity of being concerned about its birth rate for several centuries. “Its fertility was the lowest in Europe in the 19th century, it saw other countries grow much more quickly and feared running out of population”, particularly in the event of war, explains Hervé Le Bras to AFP, director of studies at the School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS). The prevailing idea then was that a large population would allow more soldiers to be fielded in order to have the advantage in the event of conflict.
From this time on, pronatalist movements developed. Subsequently, “concern for the birth rate was shared by most French leaders”, which resulted in a more important family policy than elsewhere, according to the specialist.
At a time when there are an average of 1.68 children per woman, some fear seeing the French population decline. Because to ensure generational renewal, a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman must be achieved.
Synonymous with loss of influence?
States generally refuse to see their population decrease because this “refers to a feeling of decline”, describes to AFP Catherine Scornet, lecturer at the University of Aix-Marseille.
However, from a diplomatic point of view, the demographic weight “is not enough” for a country to shine and impose itself on the international scene, underlines the specialist. Thus, India, now the most populous country in the world with its 1.4 billion inhabitants, “does not have major political weight”, she cites as an example.
A slowed economy?
A drop in the birth rate is also worrying because it “results in an aging of the population, which is associated with a loss of dynamism” of the economy, notes Catherine Scornet.
Firstly, the decline in births can have a positive impact on public finances since it means less spending on care, education and benefits.
The situation can become more complex when smaller generations reach adulthood. For France, it could then be more difficult to finance its retirement system, based on contributions from working people only. However, solutions exist to increase the active population, such as encouraging the arrival of immigrant workers.
Good news for the planet?
Do fewer children mean less pollution? At a time when the planet has more than 8 billion inhabitants, demographic growth is sometimes considered by certain activists to be problematic due to the pressure exerted on natural resources and the production of CO2. Climate defenders, in France and elsewhere, are calling for not having children to fight against global warming.
But the impact of a population on the environment “is essentially a question of consumption”, recalls Hervé Le Bras, of EHESS. If the French have fewer children, this can paradoxically have a negative impact in terms of pollution: “this leaves families with more disposable income for other expenses, often emitting CO2”, such as the purchase of a vehicle or air travel, he points out.
