The French trade deficit narrowed slightly in November, for the second consecutive month, according to customs figures published this Wednesday. It stood at 7.3 billion euros, compared to 7.6 billion euros in October. The latter has also been revised downwards, after having initially been recorded at 7.9 billion euros.
Concretely, exports recorded a stronger increase than imports in November. They have in fact increased by 600 million euros, and imports by 300 million euros. “Exports stand at 49.6 billion euros and imports at 56.9 billion euros”specify customs in a press release.
The energy bill is getting lower again
In detail for this month of November, the drop in the French deficit is mainly explained by the reduction in the energy bill. It fell by 300 million euros, to 3.7 billion euros compared to the previous month. And this, thanks to an increase in exports, “linked to the increase in prices (+9.1%) combined with that of volumes”indicate customs. At the same time, energy imports remained stable.
Excluding energy, the French trade balance was stable in November, at 5.3 billion euros. The balance of intermediate goods continued to improve (+100 million euros, as in October). That of investment goods remained at its October level, while the balance of consumer goods deteriorated (-100 million euros).
As for the current transactions deficit, an indicator which includes both exchanges of goods, services and income, it reached 1.7 billion euros in November after 1.9 billion euros in October, after data from the Banque de France.
An improvement expected throughout the year
More generally, over twelve cumulative months, the French trade balance decreased in November for the first time since February 2023. It fell by -1.4 billion euros, to stand at -83.6 billion euros. . “The weak developments observed over several months suggest a stabilization of this cumulative balance, at a level which remains lower than that preceding its sharp deterioration from the end of 2021”note customs.
The total figures for the year 2024 will be known next month. As a reminder, in its finance bill (PLF) for 2024, the government of the time of Élisabeth Borne had forecast a trade deficit of 95 billion euros for 2024. To see if this amount will be reached or will be revealed even less. The figures are in any case expected to be lower than the records recorded in the previous two years – a deficit of 99.6 billion euros in 2023 and especially 164 billion in 2022, against a backdrop of the consequences of the war in Ukraine on the world economy.
As a reminder, France has not generated a trade surplus since… 2002. To reverse the trend and allow the country to export more than import, the State is focusing in particular on the relocation of strategic production on French territory , like electric batteries. However, the impact on the trade balance should not be felt for several years.
