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Before the start of 2025, several meteorological organizations have published their weather forecasts for the months of January, February and March. While global warming continues to influence trends, France seems to be moving towards a particularly mild winter.
If the first days of January could experience some cold episodes, the projections generally place 2025 on a hot trajectory. Here's what to remember from the announced trends.
A time of positive anomaly
Weather France forecasts a milder than normal winter for January, February and March 2025. This scenario, considered 70% likely, leaves little room for temperatures below seasonal averages. European models also confirm a positive anomaly across the continent. All suggest that winter will be milder overall.
However, a warmer winter on average does not mean the absence of cold episodes. Weather France emphasizes the possibility of sudden drops in temperature depending on atmospheric circulation. Moreover, the first days of January promise to be rather cold, according to Weather Cities.
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Milder and relatively undisturbed weather in January
THE high pressures are expected to settle more frequently over Europe and France, pushing ocean flows southwards, particularly the Mediterranean basin, and towards Scandinavia. This configuration leaves uncertainty surrounding shipments, which could remain dispersed and less frequent.
In terms of temperatures, projections indicate an excess of around +1°C above seasonal averages, with a potential of up to +1.5°C according to certain models. This context limits the risk of prolonged cold spellssuggesting brief and isolated cool periods.
For the snow, snow cover in low mountains looks fragile and not very durable. This winter weather therefore seems to mark the continuation of a milder climate.
Contrasted samples of the weather
Always according to Weather Franceof the drier weather conditions than normal are expected in the south of France and on the Iberian Peninsula. On the other hand, no clear trend emerges for the rest of the country and most of Europe. A certain uncertainty therefore hangs over the coming months.
Weather Cities et The Weather Channel estimate, however, that the total rainfall over the entire quarter should remain close to seasonal averages. February could even experience a few more rainy spells.
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For March, projections indicate a probable return of anticyclonic weather. It will bring softness and dryness to a large part of the territory. This scenario could also mark the start of a dry spring, although we should watch for the possibility of late frosts on clear nights.
Rising temperatures
For the January-February-March quarter, The Weather Channel predicts temperatures in France higher than seasonal averages calculated over the last 30 years. The difference could reach +1°C, or even +1.5°C and thus marks a notable warming trend.
On the emergency side, the situation should remain close to normal over the entire period, although a slowdown in rainy episodes be anticipated over the months. March, in particular, could show a deficit in harvest, suggesting a rather dry spring.
Between mildness and progressive dryness, this winter weather highlights a transition to drier spring weather conditions.
