The new American president will be sworn in in 16 days. If we trust his threats, it is this January 20, without further delay, that he could sign the decree imposing tariffs of 25% on all Canadian products entering the United States.
This is one element among several that reminds us that 2025 will be the year of Trump. Don’t say you’re tired of hearing about Trump on this date. It hasn’t even really started yet!
Let’s start with this economic threat. Tariffs this high on all products mean Canada is plunged into recession overnight. This means businesses closing, layoffs by the thousands, our public finances degenerating.
Let’s start by saying that Canada could not be worse off to face this threat. With a government that is faltering and a prime minister who everyone is showing the way out, Canada finds itself in a very weak position against Donald Trump.
Despite everything, Minister Dominic LeBlanc tabled a border management plan to meet Trump’s demands. Maybe this could buy peace and avoid the bomb from January 20.
No respite
However, let’s be realistic, this threat will not be removed. At best, Trump will say that he is putting it on hold while he measures the effects of Canada’s efforts. But he will hold this threat like a sword of Damocles over our heads. Seeing the effect of the threat, he will let it hang around to continue to get what he wants.
Moreover, we understand more and more that Donald Trump deeply believes in customs tariffs. Last October, he said that tariffs was the most beautiful word in the English dictionary. Customs tariffs, which appear to be madness in the economic thinking of our century, are still relevant for the one that the Americans have just re-elected. Interestingly, the successful businessman shares the ideas of the CSN thinkers of the 1970s.
Then there are the other threats. Canada like 51e American state, it’s a farce of course, but what’s underneath it? In the month following his victory, Donald Trump made worrying comments about Canada, the Panama Canal and Greenland.
What intentions?
If he were a normal politician, that is to say whose remarks we analyze at face value, we would say that he had made a declaration of war (or an offer of forced annexation) to three sovereign countries. Because it’s Trump, we analyze his speech thinking that he’s having fun, that he’s saying anything.
Even if we do not take his words literally, this nevertheless reflects an expansionist desire that cannot be ignored. The Trump threat will be the issue of 2025. Canadian political leaders will have to show that they have the kind of energy needed to face it.
