In New Aquitaine, the best rate obtained by the broker Cafpi for a loan over a period of twenty-five years is still 3.17%, which places the region in third position – behind PACA, Corsica and the Island. -de-France – the best rates obtained by borrowers. However, the average rate in our region is, over the same duration, 3.38% and 3% on average for a credit duration of ten years.
The strategic decisions of central banks, starting with the ECB (European Central Bank), suggest that if the fall in rates has slowed down in recent months, thanks to the successive reductions in rates decided by the latter, the coming months could confirm the decline in mortgage rates. The very last reduction decided by the ECB took place on December 12, 2024 due to the confirmation of the fall in inflation (which stood at 1.3% year-on-year in November).
Political uncertainty does not slow down the trend
France is going through a period of political uncertainty, with the censorship of the Barnier government and the establishment of that of François Bayrou, resulting in an increase in the 10-year OAT (rate of return on the French bond, i.e. the rate at which the State borrows for ten years) at 3.20% at the end of December, compared to 2.85% the day before the censorship, but this should not reverse the decline in rates.
Indeed, competition between banks remains strong and they have credit production objectives to achieve or maintain. For the best profiles of borrowing households, Cafpi was able to negotiate rates of 2.80% over ten years, 3.01% over fifteen years, 3.05% over twenty years and 3.15% over twenty years for this month of January. -five years, which remain lower than the rates offered by the banks a month ago.
Under these conditions, the broker is banking, barring further political ups and downs, on a continued fall in rates throughout 2025 with a prospect of an average rate of 2.50% by the end of the year.
Seeing bigger in Bordeaux, possible again?
“Today, the rates practiced are more than 1% lower than those proposed at the highest in December 2023. However, 1% difference on a loan of 200,000 euros over twenty-five years represents a saving of 25,000 euros,” recalls Caroline Arnauld, CEO of Cafpi.
