How much will France have to borrow in 2025?

These medium and long-term debt issues are net of redemptions.

How was the AFT able to establish this program?

The agency relied on the special law passed in Parliament on December 16 and 18, which authorizes the State to issue loans, and on the finance bill (PLF 2025), even if the latter does not could be voted on before the end of the year. The AFT will adjust the final amount at the end of the negotiations which must resume under the leadership of the government of François Bayrou, appointed two days before Christmas.

When do the auctions take place?

The AFT carries out debt issues through auctions which generally take place on the first Thursday of each month, according to a schedule published on its website.

“Predictability, with a schedule to which we stick. Regularity, with our weekly auctions of French Treasury bonds (BTF) in the short term and every two weeks of OATs in the medium-long term,” explained Antoine Deruennes, general director of the AFT, recently during a press point. , according to comments reported by the Agefi/Dow Jones agency.

Emissions that risk costing more

Unlike previous years, the 2025 program will take place in a somewhat particular context.

On the one hand, investors still do not know what the budget for the coming year will look like, which means that we will have to wait for the final vote on the 2025 budget to know exactly how much France will have to borrow.

On the other hand, the cost of debt has a good chance of increasing. Since the beginning of December, the 10-year government bond yield (OAT) has increased from 2.90% to 3.12%.

According to Factset, the rate differential between French and German debt is currently 0.83% (83 basis points).

The inability of the last Barnier government to pass a budget for 2025, then its dismissal, have already led the Moody's agency to lower France's credit rating.

Uncertainty about the chances of success of his successor, François Bayrou, could lead other agencies to lower their rating in turn.

General data on the public debt of France

• Public debt (Maastricht definition): 3,303 billion euros (+71.7 billion in the 3rd quarter of 2024) compared to 3,097 billion euros a year earlier.
• Public debt/GDP: 113.7% (3rd quarter 2024) compared to 111.2% (3rd quarter 2023)
• Net public debt issuance in 2024 (at the end of October): 263.5 billion euros.
• Holding of negotiable debt securities (OAT) by residents: 48% (non-residents: 52%).
• Average maturity of negotiable debt: 8 years and 161 days
• Weighted average OAT rate (October 31, 2024): 2.89%

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