No government under the tree
The mood at the negotiating table is “constructive”we are told. The presidents of the five parties brought to form the hypothetical Arizona (N-VA, MR, Les Engagés, Vooruit and CD&V) work hard in meetings in the “conclave” format which extend over a large part of their days.
Since the last meeting with the King (December 10), the negotiators have focused their efforts on the socio-economic aspect, which includes issues related to employment, pensions and taxation. “This work has made it possible to move forward and have constructive discussions on each of these issues.”slips a source present at the Arizona table. “We took the time to listen to everyone’s visions on these different aspects in order to better identify priorities and points of convergence.”
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In recent days, other thematic issues have been discussed, notably those concerning health, climate and energy. However, there are stillbottlenecks”blocking points as it is called in the jargon of negotiators. The next step will consist of putting these discussions into perspective with the budgetary framework and integrating the necessary adjustments, taking into account the discussions held on the socio-economic aspect.
On the Top 3 podium
Bart De Wever will most likely be extended by the King in his functions. There is no indication that it could be otherwise. In doing so, this formation will reach the top 3 of the longest formations in the history of Belgium.
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On December 20, it will be exactly 194 days (6 months and 11 days) that the embryonic De Wever government will attempt to be born. The next day, it will exceed the time taken by the Verhofstadt III government to form. After the elections of June 10, 2007, the Liberal government was not formed until December 21, 2007. That is to say after 194 days (6 months and 11 days).
In doing so, Arizona will slowly begin to approach the time taken by the Wilmes II government to see the light of day. After the elections of May 26, 2019, the “Covid” government was not born until March 17, 2020. That is to say a gestation period of 296 days (9 months and 20 days).
However, these durations are still very far from the absolute (and world) record obtained by the Di Rupo government. Following the elections of June 13, 2010, the training ran until December 6, 2011, or 541 days (17 months and 23 days).
16 audiences with the King
How did we get here when the day after the federal elections, the formation of the federal government seemed to be nothing more than a simple formality? In the first months, it appeared that the five parties were motivated to move quickly to achieve success before September 20, the date on which the European Commission expected to receive Belgium’s new budget. This delay would have allowed the budget agreement to follow the entire classic parliamentary validation process so that major fiscal and economic reforms could be implemented from the start of 2025.
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But quickly, differences began to emerge, with the five parties not defending the same political visions. Vooruit wants to tax large fortunes, Les Engagés would like a health care growth standard of 3.5%, the MR believes that capital gains should not be taxed more… These discrepancies have several times led us to believe that the project Arizona was good for the trash. From June 10 to December 20, the president of the N-VA, Bart De Wever, will have made 16 return trips to the King.
Chronology
The day after the elections, the president of the N-VA, the largest party in the country, was received in audience at the Palace. The presidents of other parties are also consulted by the King. Two days later, Mr. De Wever was sent on an information mission. On June 19, he submitted his first report as an informant. On June 26, the leader of the Flemish nationalists was appointed preformer. A mission that will last two weeks.
July 10 begins the training process. A first report to the King was submitted on July 24. Optimism still reigns. The five parties respect the slogan not to leak information on the negotiations.
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A second report was made on August 19. The press then reported new tensions. On August 22, there was the first psycho-drama: Bart De Wever submitted his resignation for the first time, no agreement having been found on the overall content of his “super note” and the budgetary tables which accompanied it. Leaks then begin to emerge around these documents supposed to be used “cornerstone of the next government agreement”.
The next day, the president of Les Engagés, Maxime Prévot, was appointed mediator. For a week, the centrist known for his conciliatory temperament was busy trying to iron out differences and patch everyone up. On September 2, the mayor of Namur was relieved of his mission and the mayor of Antwerp became a trainer again. Two reports will follow successively on September 23 and October 17. Then come the municipal elections.
After this truce, everyone thought things would go faster. Nope. Here is Vooruit which demands a series of prerogatives before even starting negotiations. Reaction from partners? They ask the socialists to leave the table. On November 4, “BDW” resigned a second time. The King takes note of this, but he puts the trainer on hold. 8 days later, the Antwerp player was extended for two weeks. Since then, despite some criticism leading to a change in working method, the five parties seem to have found a way to move forward. And Bart De Wever visited the King three times (November 25, December 10, December 20) to present to him the progress of the work.
On the French-speaking side, some think, without really believing it, that an agreement could still be reached before December 31. But the majority of partners are targeting the month of January to have a new government.
