Abdoul Mbaye did not fail to react following the publication of the draft Initial Finance Law (LFI 2025) of the new regime. The president of the ACT party considered this project as an illusion of unobtainable prosperity.
“Senegal’s draft Initial Finance Law (LFI) 2025 gives the image of a country in full swing, but behind this shiny facade hides a very different reality. The figures presented seem designed to seduce, but they do not stand up to lucid analysis. Continuing the momentum of the old regime, this budget is based on unrealistic forecasts, disconnected budgetary management and a dangerous headlong rush for the country’s economy.
Under Macky Sall, the 2023 budget was already based on an imposture: a nominal growth forecast of 10.1% between 2022 and 2023. The catastrophic revision of this rate to 4.1% of real GDP did not prevent to maintain a largely inflated nominal GDP, thus distorting deficit and debt calculations. Today, the new regime is part of this deceptive continuity. By projecting growth of 20.35% between 2022 and 2024, it perpetuates an economic vision disconnected from reality. A gloomy peanut campaign and a declining economy make these figures absurd, even insulting for the Senegalese who are struggling to make ends meet.
And yet the illusions continue. Internal revenues forecast for 2025 reach 4,348.1 billion FCFA, but they would barely be enough to cover debt service, which amounts to 3,855.52 billion FCFA, or 88.7% of revenues. Despite this alarming observation, no serious measures to reduce public spending are envisaged. Worse, certain budget lines are increasing. The Presidency offers an additional 3.45 billion FCFA, the Prime Minister 1.2 billion FCFA, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stands out with an increase of 18.84 billion FCFA, divided between investments and acquisitions of goods and services. Where is the promised effort of rigor?
To top it off, the government is banking on “Diaspora Bonds” to fill its gaps. The idea seems brilliant: mobilize the patriotism of Senegalese people abroad to finance deficits and projects. But this approach is more wishful thinking than a solid plan. The diaspora, already burdened by the family needs they support, may be reluctant to invest in local currency bonds, especially in the face of economic instability.
This budget, supposedly ambitious, is nothing other than a headlong rush. By refusing to face economic realities and avoiding essential reforms, Senegal is locked in a dangerous spiral. What is needed is a truth budget. This starts with sincere forecasts, a drastic reduction in the state’s lifestyle, and a reorientation of resources towards real priorities: social sectors, agriculture in crisis, and the needs of the most vulnerable populations.
Senegal can no longer afford the luxury of illusions. Now is the time for effort, rigor and justice. It is only at this price that it will regain the trust of its citizens, its donors, and its diaspora.
Abdoul Mbaye
President ACT
SENEGAL KESE
