The question at the start of the month was “Will the Barnier government survive the winter? » The answer came loudly. The question at the end of the year is now “will we have a Bayrou government before Christmas? » And the lack of response is already causing a stir. We know that François Bayrou will pronounce his “general policy speech” on January 14 in front of Parliament. Will he, on that date, be at the head of a “general interest government” in full, bringing together personalities from the left, the center and the right ready to turn the country around? The speeches of the representatives of the political groups that he received this Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday say quite the opposite.
The “social democrats” (socialists, ecologists, even communists) who a change of Prime Minister could have brought to rally unanimously said they “disappointed” by the choice of François Bayrou and their first exchanges with him. “The conditions are not met” for Republican participation in a Bayrou government, Bruno Retailleau declared on Wednesday on BFMTV and RMC. The National Rally (RN) limits itself to repeating its “red lines” and who he refuses to see become or become a minister again (Xavier Bertrand, Éric Dupond-Moretti…). The Insoumis (LFI) automatically put themselves out of the game by refusing to go to Matignon.
Also read. François Bayrou’s political equation is further complicated by sluggish growth
In his speech on December 5, Emmanuel Macron mentioned the constitution of a government “tightened”. The way things are going, this future government could well be made up only of ministers from the ranks of the central bloc alone, coming from Renaissance, Modem, Horizons or the Radical Party. Very, very far from the opening that the appointment of François Bayrou suggested, particularly towards the left.
Trust is in pieces
This opening seems all the more improbable, at this stage, as the Prime Minister has multiplied the missteps since taking office. His participation in the Pau municipal council on Monday evening, when the emergency required mobilization in favor of Mayotte, was legitimately shocking. His explanations to the Assembly the next day were to be reassuring: they plunged the hemicycle into perplexity. Two interviews with the President on Tuesday alone, a third on Wednesday afternoon, suggest that there is still a lot to be done at the level of the “executive couple”. Or to reframe.
These hiccups may have dissuaded rare people of good will from taking a step in the direction of François Bayrou, suspected of not being the man for the job, including in his own camp. Outside of political apparatuses, doubt is even a factor of improbable unity. Tuesday, seven of the country’s largest employer and union organizations co-signed a press release calling on elected officials “to find the path to stability, visibility and serenity as quickly as possible”, to ward off “the risk of an economic crisis with dramatic social consequences” .
The threat is real. Confidence in pieces. There is an urgent need to get back on track and demonstrate that the situation is under control. This is probably the real purpose of the meeting proposed by the Prime Minister this Thursday, at 2 p.m., to representatives of all parties. Excluding LFI, RN and allies.
The invitation looks like a last chance meeting. François Bayrou will have to be much more skillful, diplomatic and conciliatory than during his first, failed steps as Prime Minister. Or his time at Matignon will be even shorter than that of Michel Barnier. And France promises absolutely unprecedented turbulence.
