Obviously, Moroccan households are no longer having as many children as before. Indeed, according to the final results of the RGPH2024, the fertility rate has been in continuous decline since 2004. This decline in the population growth rate is mainly explained by the continued decline in fertility and the Synthetic Fertility Index. (ISF), expressed as average number of children per woman, increased from 2.5 in 2004 to 2.2 in 2014, reaching 1.97 in 2024. This fertility level is now below the generation replacement threshold, which is 2.1 children per woman.
The downward trend in fertility concerns both urban and rural women. The average number of children per woman in urban areas is 1.77 in 2024 compared to 2.01 in 2014, while in rural areas it is 2.37 in 2024 compared to 2.55 in 2014. Fertility varies significantly between regions, reflecting spatially differentiated demographic dynamics. TFR levels exceed the generation replacement threshold in the regions of Drâa-Tafilalet (2.35), Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab (2.25), Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra (2.17) and Marrakech -Safi (2.13). On the other hand, the rest of the regions display fertility indices below the replacement threshold, reflecting an advanced demographic transition, particularly in the regions of Oriental (1.73), Souss-Massa (1.89), and Casablanca. -Settat (1.90), Rabat-Salé-Kénitra (1.91) and Béni Mellal-Khénifra (1.95).
The explanations provided at this level emphasize that the downward trend in fertility reflects changes in marital behavior. Although the average age of women at first marriage has decreased slightly from 25.7 years to 24.6 years, the decline in fertility is primarily a result of wider use of contraceptive methods.
In this same context, the phenomenon of permanent singleness at age 55 has increased, with a single rate of 9.4% in 2024 compared to 5.9% in 2014. It remains high among women (11.1%). than among men (7.6%), and in urban areas (10.3%) than in rural areas (7.6%).
The decline in fertility also takes place in a context marked, on the one hand, by the increase in the proportion of divorced people aged 15 and over, from 2.2% to 3.3% between 2014 and 2024 for both sexes and from 3.3% to 4.6% for women, and, on the other hand, by the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic having possibly prompted many couples to postpone their marriage and marriage plans. procreation.
Does this mean that Moroccan society is increasingly aging? The results of the Census reveal that behind these demographic changes, the age pyramid records a reversal trend marked, on the one hand, by the drop in the share of young people under 15 from 28.2% in 2014 to 26.5% in 2024 and the proportion of the population of working age (15 to 59 years) from 62.4% in 2014 to 59.7% in 2024 and on the other hand, by the increase in the proportion of people aged 60 and over from 9.4% in 2014 to 13.8% in 2024.
The population aged 60 and over will number nearly 5 million people in 2024 compared to 3.2 million in 2014, representing an average annual increase of 4.6%, significantly higher than that of the entire population (0.85 %). This dynamic reflects the accelerated aging of the population, a phenomenon which is profoundly transforming the demographic structure.
A little more than half of the elderly (58.8%) are under 70 years old, 28.3% of them are aged between 70 and 79 years old and 12.9% are 80 years old and over. This situation poses significant challenges in terms of addressing the specific needs of older people, particularly in the areas of health, social protection and adapted social infrastructure.
As of September 1, 2024, the number of households amounts to 9,275,038 compared to 7,313,806 in 2014, thus displaying an average annual growth rate of 2.4% compared to 2.6% during the period 2004-2014. This increase in households occurred at a much faster rate than that of the population (2.4% compared to 0.85%). As a result, the average household size, expressed by the average number of people per household, decreased from 4.6 people in 2014 to 3.9 in 2024. This decline is observed in both areas of residence, from 4.2 to 3.7 people in urban areas and from 5.3 to 4.4 people in rural areas.
In view of this development, the structure of households changed between 2014 and 2024. During this period, the proportion of households composed of one person increased from 7.2% to 11.1% and that of two to three people from 26.1% to 31.7%. On the other hand, the share of households made up of four or more people decreased from 66.7% to 57.2%.
In the wake of these developments, the proportion of households headed by women increased from 16.2% in 2014 to 19.2% in 2024. This increase reflects significant developments in the social and economic roles of women, as well as in family dynamics. This trend is more marked in urban areas, where the share of households headed by women reaches 21.6% in 2024, compared to 14.5% in rural areas.
For his first media outing at the head of the HCP, the new High Commissioner for Planning Chakib Benmoussa made it clear that he will ensure the neutrality and independence of the HCP, while noting that the role of this institution should not hardly turn into a lesson giver. On the contrary, the latter comes from the mysteries of Moroccan administrations and unlike his predecessor, a pure Ittihadi, was kind enough to demonstrate during this press briefing that the HCP will continue its involvement in its mission of in-depth analysis of reality. socio-economic status of the country.
H.Z.
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