Marc Lazar: “Politically, France is getting closer to Italy”

Appointed Prime Minister on Friday December 13, François Bayrou immediately began consultations with all political parties represented in the National Assembly, with a view to verifying that his future government will not suffer the fate of his predecessor Michel Barnier. This process had never been used under the V^And Republic and is similar to the institutional practice of Italy.

Explanations with Marc Lazar, professor emeritus of history and political sociology at Sciences Po. Also holder of the Chair of Franco-Italian Relations for Europe at Luiss University in Rome, he recently published Left. Crisis and Challenges of the European Left (end of Twentieth Century-2020s)(Milan, Feltrinelli, 2024).

Emmanuel Macron has entrusted François Bayrou with the mission of consulting the parties at the same time as he must form his government, with the aim of reaching a non-censorship pact. Is this something new in the practice of V institutions?^And Republic?

Marc Lazar: As soon as the Barnier government was censored by the Assembly, we saw this incredible event of a President of the Republic summoning the party leaders and the presidents of parliamentary groups – excluding the National Rally – to the Elysée, which did not happen. was never seen since the beginning of the V^And Republic.

Friday, the same head of state appointed the Prime Minister, according to article 8 of the Constitution, but with the specifications of carrying out consultations to form a sufficient base – let’s not talk about a majority – in Parliament .

Political actors, and perhaps public opinion itself, are beginning to realize that we are in a completely new situation because for a long time, the V^And Republic lived with a president with a majority, then, during two episodes, with the cohabitation of two great forces, the right and the left.

Since 2022, and even more since 2024, not only have we had to deal with the tripartition of opinion, but also with the fragmentation within the tripartition, in an atmosphere of considerable distrust of citizens towards politics.

If he succeeds in these conditions in forming his government, François Bayrou, who is not just any character on the political scene, could perhaps gain some margins of autonomy vis-à-vis the Elysée and fulfill article 20 of the Constitution: the government determines and conducts the policy of the Nation.

It will be necessary to observe in the coming days and weeks whether, belonging to the same group as the President, the Prime Minister will have greater latitude for action and will be able to give back to Parliament greater deliberative power.

But to achieve this, François Bayrou must first find a way of life with the socialists who ask to see the program to decide on a possible motion of censure…

M. L. : It is the pas de deux of the socialists who, for reasons internal to the Party (the latter will hold its congress in 2025), extended their hand but on condition that the Prime Minister was from the left, which could have led to the The breakup of the New Popular Front (NFP).

For the moment, we find the PS which is compacting itself into the opposition, also subject to terrible pressure from La France insoumise (LFI) which is tabling a motion of censure in order to force its allies to join it. The position of the PS seems to be an agreement for non-censorship if the Prime Minister for his part renounces the use of article 49.3, which, by the way, would complicate the discussion of the budget from the month of January …

For a long time, France appeared as the country of political stability with a strong executive and a Parliament with limited powers, and Italy as the country of the instability of parliamentarism and ” combination ». Are we becoming Italian?

M. L. : First, you would have to speak Italian… The term “ combination » is not used in Italy, it is a French caricature. But yes, despite the historical and institutional differences, I am struck by the similarities. France is therefore getting closer to Italy. First, after the legislative elections, the Italian president systematically consults the parties. This is what Emmanuel Macron did last week.

Then, he entrusts a personality with “assignment », i.e. the mission for the potential Council President [l’équivalent du Premier ministre, NDLR.] to check if he can gather a parliamentary majority and therefore constitute his government. And this is more or less the direction set by Emmanuel Macron for François Bayrou who began consultations on the evening of his appointment by receiving Bruno Retailleau, resigning Minister of the Interior, but above all depositary of the security line and reduction of immigration from the LR right, component of the “common base”.

In Italy, in the event of failure, the person « assignment » returns to see the President of the Republic, who is looking for another personality. Or, if he succeeds, he constitutes his government and will ask for the confidence of the two assemblies, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, essential for the government to be « settled », installed. In France, this is not an obligation.

In the Chamber of Deputies, a relative majority is enough, because abstainers are counted. In the Senate, on the other hand, an absolute majority of those present is required, and abstainers are considered “against” votes. As a result, it is common to see senators leave the room at the time of the vote, in order not to bring down the government, or “give him a chance” as Marine Le Pen would say. In Italian, it is “non-distrust”.

François Bayrou will be able to count on the support of the central bloc and probably that of the Republicans (LR). The questions concern the attitude of communists, ecologists and socialists. Will they grant him an Italian “non-distrust”? This will undoubtedly depend on the composition of the government and even more on the program it will present.

Some claim that the “non-censorship pact” would render the Bayrou government powerless, by having to respect the “red lines” of each of the parties making it up. Given the Italian experience, is this true?

M. L. : Currently, this is not the case. The government of Giorgia Meloni runs the country relying on the coalition of the far right and the Italian right which won the 2022 elections, with an absolute majority in both chambers.

That being said, in terms of electoral masses, Italy is divided equally in two, with a difference in size, the right is united, the opposition divided. In a situation comparable to that of France, governing in Italy turns out to be very difficult because governments fall easily, even if this country has never experienced four governments in one year like this year in France!

It happened that he had two governments at most. But yes, these weakened governments, paralyzed by overly fragile majorities, had the greatest difficulty in carrying out fundamental reforms or getting the country out of massive debt, or even were incapable of doing so. At the same time, we have seen some exceptions.

One of the most famous occurred between 1992 and 1993 with the government of the socialist Giuliano Amato, a great politician, who in a disastrous political, economic and financial situation for Italy, applied very harsh austerity measures to the country, including , on the night of July 10, 1992, the withdrawal by the Bank of Italy of 6/1000 of all the current accounts of Italians, in order to replenish the coffers of the state.

However, Italians know that these weakened governments are also limited in duration. Will this be the case for the Bayrou government? It’s to be seen. Because it could fall overnight if the left votes for a motion of censure with the RN and at the same time, it may be expected to last. And this for two reasons.

The first is an “optimistic” scenario. The “reasonable” political parties, noting the level of concern of the French and the pressure of opinion polls revealing the desire for an agreement, agree to tackle a few priorities: the budget, the voting method, maybe pensions.

The second is more realistic. Apart from LFI and the RN, no party is ready for an immediate presidential election, and these parties will do everything to make Emmanuel Macron last, starting by not bringing down the government. This is how calls to reduce ambitions must be understood.

Do not make too many waves so that the boat continues on its path economically, societally, socially, environmentally… despite the holes in the hull. This is not very good for the country, and one wonders what will come out of all this in terms of public policy.

We can also ask ourselves the question of the attitude of a weakened government in the face of powerful movements of observation. We are currently seeing the anger of farmers, but other sectors could also come forward: railway workers, public service workers, etc.

M. L. : The social situation is extraordinarily worrying. The recent Social Fractures survey (carried out by Ipsos for Cevipof of Sciences Po, the Institut Montaigne and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation) shows the exasperation of the French, the anger that runs through society. In addition, we know the relative weakness in France of mediation structures such as unions or associations.

We remember the Yellow Vest crisis, and even if it did not resurface in the same way, we cannot predict what the attitude of a government faced with a series of social movements or outbursts of anger would be. This will depend, among other things, on who will make up this government, what its balance will be between the right, the center and perhaps the left.