Although the left has held up better than elsewhere, Clermont political scientist Mathias Bernard believes that the far-right vote is becoming established.
Strong surge of the RN, resistance of the left, projection on the second round. The Clermont political scientist Mathias Bernard looks back on the lessons of the first round in Puy-de-Dôme and Auvergne.
The National Rally has sometimes tripled its score in the constituencies of Puy-de-Dôme in just two years, how can this be explained? There was a groundswell, which is a national movement, not sparing Auvergne. In Puy-de-Dôme, the RN qualified in all five constituencies, whereas it was only present in one in 2022 and that was already a first. We can clearly see that there is no longer any area of weakness whereas for a long time Auvergne and more particularly Puy-de-Dôme were an area of weakness for the RN. But it is not a surprise either, it is the confirmation of the European elections three weeks ago. In Lezoux, Pont-du-Château, the RN had already exceeded the 40% mark.
On the map of France, Puy-de-Dôme is however one of the rare areas where the New Popular Front comes out on top. What can we attribute this to? The first and second constituencies have been anchored on the left since the Liberation. There is also, on the part of Christine Pirès-Beaune and Marianne Maximi, recognized parliamentary and field work. And Marianne Maximi does not have as divisive an image as other rebellious candidates. She also benefits from the configuration of her constituency, in particular the northern and eastern part of Clermont, where she exceeds 45% which allows her to compensate for votes where she is in more difficulty, such as in Gerzat where the permeability to the RN vote is stronger. In 2017 and 2022, Christine Pirès-Beaune had already resisted previous waves of dégagisme. Even if she suffered a decline on Sunday due to the rise of the RN in the rural part.
The results of the legislative elections by municipality
As for the Chassaigne dike, it held despite a strong push from the RN. Without it, wouldn’t Thiers-Ambert have already collapsed? We can see this in the European elections, where the RN won 36%. Chassaigne is certainly a barrier, but weakened. In 2022, he had a thirty-point lead over the RN, now he only has two. So we see that even he, who is still in a favorable position, is no longer able to stem a national vote to get out, on which Jordan Bardella is capitalizing.
In Issoire, the outgoing Modem Delphine Lingemann has significantly improved her score, is this surprising? Clearly, because of the two Modem candidates, she was the most threatened by the rise of the RN. She must be one of the rare outgoing MPs to have improved her score since 2022, without having the support from the first round with the absence of an LR for example. She obtained 7,000 votes and two points more compared to 2022, 27.4%. The Hayer list had achieved eleven points less in the European elections in Puy-de-Dôme.
In Haute-Loire, the RN is putting the President of the Region Laurent Wauquiez (LR) in difficulty, was this predictable? It’s a surprise, because of its local roots and the parachuting of its opponent. In the European elections, the RN had achieved a very good score, but this was also linked to the LR electorate which had partly voted for the Bardella list. One could have thought that this electorate would return to a Wauquiez vote, especially since the latter embodies a right-wing right. This did not completely work, which shows that Sunday’s vote was national. Local considerations, the weight of personalities played much less of a role than for usual legislative elections. There was a determination among the voters who had voted RN on June 9 to go all the way.
Interview by Laurent Bernard
