The borders of large urban areas are no longer insurmountable limits for the extreme right in France, considering the south-eastern sector as a separate area, which is already invested by this movement. If we are to believe the results of the first round of the legislative elections, the National Rally is improving its score in municipalities close to large cities, which until now were presented as ramparts.
In Bordeaux, “the blue wave has really crossed the first belt line, the big ring,” summarizes Jean Petaux, Bordeaux political scientist. And, only the first four constituencies remain, the heart of the urban area. » A situation which is not only observed in the Gironde capital.
Conquering urban areas
In the four constituencies of the Lille metropolitan area excluding Lille, we went from 15% of votes for the RN in 2022 to 23% in 2024. In the Nantes metropolitan area, four triangulars are emerging with RN candidates in the four constituencies, while none were present in the second round in 2022. The far-right party goes from around 10% in 2022 to 15-20% in 2024.
In the four Lyon constituencies the same observation: without coming in first, the RN doubles its score compared to 2022. In Bordeaux, in the 6th and 7th constituencies, we observe a surge of the RN. For Jean Petaux, one of the most spectacular examples is found in the 7th (Pessac, Gradignan). Bérangère Couillard, Renaissance MP since 2017 (coming second with 33.12%) is followed by Clémence Naveys-Dumas, a very young RN candidate who won 22.43% of the votes. “She is just 18 years old, with a professional baccalaureate in her pocket and she makes this score with a reputation capital close to zero,” comments the political scientist.
How can we explain this evolution of the RN?
“It’s the nature of waves, they gain momentum as the tide rises and the more things go, the more the obstacles at the top of the beach, in a way, find themselves overwhelmed,” describes Jean Petaux, extending the metaphor. Still on the 7th district, he notes that the young graduate improved Jordan Bardella’s score in the Europeans, by two points. How can we explain this rapid progression, just a few weeks apart? “I strongly believe in the ripple effects of electoral dynamics,” analyzes the political scientist. A part of the voters is interested in the party which has the wind in its sails and whose dynamics we think will make it win. It is a specific kinetic energy. »
He notes that locally, the RN has chosen not to even put up photos of the candidates, relying on the national image of Bardella-Le Pen. In the same way that Macronist candidates were elected without anyone knowing them, carried by the enthusiasm for the En Marche label of the presidential camp, the RN is self-supporting.
What to expect for the second round?
Although it is dangerous to risk making predictions, we already know that the record for the number of triangulars will be broken. “There is a potential of 340 triangulars and with the withdrawals, this could drop by two thirds,” comments Jean Petaux. The low forecast will still be higher than the 88 triangulars which were held in 1997, a record year. These then considerably helped the plural left to win. » Beyond this observation, he highlights triangulars which present themselves very differently depending on the constituency and with an electorate which is increasingly distancing itself from voting instructions.
The in-seat projections that took place on election night are scientifically “fragile”. With the two-round single-member ballot, the “majority fact” explains that in the second round, a relative majority is enough to be elected in a triangular or quadrangular election. “In 1981, the Socialist Party held 33 to 34% of the votes nationwide and had an absolute majority on its own. »It is still possible for the RN. He also recalls that in 2017, the Macronists had collected 35 to 36% of the votes, which translated into 320 seats for their camp.
For this observer, this push by the RN is the fruit of twenty years of plowing the ground in terms of ideas. And, at the same time, we see that the local equation carries little weight, since the logic of the national wave is at work and gives the impression of interchangeable candidates.
You will have to wait until Tuesday 6 p.m., the closing date for applications for the second round, to better understand the results of this very atypical election.
