the essential
Even though the mayor of Montauban Brigitte Barèges comes out on top in the 1st constituency (43.93%), Valérie Rabault (36.81%) can hope to keep her seat as MP. The transfer of the 15.5% of votes obtained by Catherine Simonin-Benazet, the eliminated Renaissance candidate, will undoubtedly be the key to the second round.
In Castelsarrasin, the outgoing RN MP Marine Hamelet is in a very favourable position with 49.17% of the vote. On Sunday 7 July, she will face Claudie Chrétien (LFI, New Popular Front) who only obtained 18.54% of the vote. Jules Duffaut (Horizons) and Anne Ius (PRG) each exceed 15% but are not able to maintain their position.
On my right… and even a little more than before with this electoral alliance signed between Ciotti and Bardella, Brigitte Barèges, the mayor of Montauban.
On my left, Valérie Rabault, outgoing PS MP and 1st Vice-President of the National Assembly in the previous term abruptly interrupted by President Macron. The duel, the long-awaited fight between these two women who are complete opposites will indeed take place on Sunday, July 7 in the 1st constituency of Tarn-et-Garonne. And only a clever person could say with certainty, on the evening of this first round, the identity of the lucky winner.
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Legislative 2024 in Tarn-et-Garonne: in a tie against Brigitte Barèges, Valérie Rabault calls for “to come together”
Yes, as she hoped, Brigitte Barèges is in the lead. With 43.93%, she is ahead of Valérie Rabault by 7 points. The 4,500 votes that separate them correspond to approximately half of the total votes cast for Catherine Simonin-Bénazet. With 15.5%, the Renaissance candidate is eliminated… but her electorate will be very popular this week. Will the “neither nor” advocated by the presidential camp to bring back to back the two alliances LR/RN and NFP (with the Insoumis of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in red rag) be valid for Valérie Rabault? It is not certain.
Tempted by this Barèges-Rabault poster that we had not seen since 2012, the electorate turned out in large numbers this last Sunday of June. With 70.77%, participation is a jump of almost 19 points compared to the 2022 legislative elections!
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2024 legislative elections in Tarn-et-Garonne: Brigitte Barèges wants to “succeed in uniting the right”
If we look at the count, like a boxing match, it seems that Brigitte Barèges did not knock out her opponent. The mayor of Montauban is in the lead in 44 of the 63 municipalities in the constituency (including Nègrepelisse, a source of annoyance for mayor Morgan Tellier, Valérie Rabault’s substitute, and Caussade) but in the city of Ingres, she is not widening the gap hoped for by her supporters. The result of Montauban alone (37.2% against 42.1% for the one who has occupied the town hall for 23 years… minus a 10-month interlude) leaves a lot of hope for Valérie Rabault who exceeds 50% in Saint-Antonin-Noble-Val, Laguépie and Verfeil-sur-Seye.
The RN confirms in the west
In the 2nd constituency, where again 7 out of 10 voters turned out, the second round will not have the same flavor. The National Rally almost gave up in this first round. The outgoing MP, despite a poor record for 2 years, is taking advantage of the political brand she represents and the media rating of her leader Jordan Bardella (omnipresent on leaflets and posters), to garner votes. With 49.17%, Marine Hamelet can approach the second round calmly… and also already think about the municipal elections of 2026, with this almost 53% obtained in Castelsarrasin.
In the second round, her opponent will be Claudie Chrétien, as unknown as she is in the towns and villages of the 2nd constituency. Simply, the LFI activist from Cazes-Mondenard benefited from the investiture of the New Popular Front.
Anne Ius’s good journey
Four coalition parties (PS, PCF, EELV and Insoumis) who painfully obtain 18.5% (but almost 23% in Moissac where the opposition to Romain Lopez is regaining some colour) when the other left-wing candidate, Anne Ius, with the sole PRG label, obtains 15%. Things could have been different if Jean-Luc Mélenchon had seized the outstretched hand of the Radicals when the NFP was formed. The departmental councillor avoids a grand slam of the RN by coming out on top in two communes of Lomagne (Maumusson and Glatens). Anne Ius also obtains very good scores in Montbeton (24%), where Michel Weill retains significant support, but also Beaumont (21.75%) and Valence (20%).
In all responsibility, Anne Ius called on Sunday evening, in Bourret, the voters of the 2nd constituency to block the RN and therefore vote for Claudie Chrétien.
To reverse such an equation and prevent Marine Hamelet from regaining her seat at the Palais Bourbon, it will be necessary not only to have very good transfers of votes to the left but also for the more than 10,000 votes (15.6%) obtained by the young Moissagais Jules Duffaut, under the label of Horizons, the party of the former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, to also cement the republican front. We dare not believe it.
