Lacking a majority in the Assembly where, unlike Ms Borne, he preferred to let the debates take place, Michel Barnier will “probably” use this constitutional weapon in the coming weeks, which allows the adoption of a text without a vote, except if a motion of censure were to overthrow the government. Which would suppose that the RN adds its votes to a motion tabled by the left.
This “coalition of opposites”, “I know that it is not what the French want, who today want stability, serenity”, said the Prime Minister on Thursday. Like Emmanuel Macron who from Argentina also said he wanted “stability”.
But according to an Ipsos poll for La Tribune Dimanche, 53% of French people want to see the government fall. And Michel Barnier's rating falls in another Ifop poll for the JDD, to 36% compared to 45% when he was appointed at the beginning of September.
What happens if the budget and government are overturned? In Le Parisien, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon warns against “a Greek scenario” by pointing out the risk of a financial crisis.
“There is no one responsible in the country who could wish for the fall of a government which was appointed two months ago,” adds François Bayrou on BFMTV.
“If there was censorship, there would be a regime crisis,” said LR Agnès Evren on France 3.
-“Don't scare the French”-
“We must not scare the French for nothing”, replied the vice-president of the RN Sébastien Chenu, referring to the adoption of a “special budgetary law” in the event of censorship.
“The President of the Republic has several possibilities: reappoint the same Prime Minister, reappoint a new Prime Minister, resign if he no longer has any other solution, trigger a referendum,” listed the deputy from the North.
While waiting for the interview on Monday morning, “Michel Barnier creates the conditions for censorship,” judged Mr. Chenu. And the RN lists its grievances: revaluation of pensions, tax on electricity, “increase in France's contribution to the European Union”, or even the absence of savings on “the state's millefeuille” and “on immigration”…
Three budgetary texts are likely to be submitted to 49.3. First, the Social Security budget. After a vote on the entire text on Tuesday in the Senate, a Joint Commission between deputies and senators (CMP) should be convened on Wednesday. The governmental “common base” is in the majority. But the Macronists are threatening to derail it, with strong winds against the reduction in reductions in employer contributions on salaries.
A conclusive CMP would lead to a final vote in both chambers, with 49.3 likely in the Assembly.
The state budget, then, which arrives in session on Monday in the Senate, with a solemn vote scheduled for December 12, prelude to the meeting of a CMP, then a final vote.
The finance bill for the end of management for 2024, also: already rejected at first reading in the Assembly, it is examined Monday morning at the Palais du Luxembourg.
Monday, after Ms Le Pen, Michel Barnier also receives Stéphane Lenormand (Liot), Eric Ciotti (UDR) then Mathilde Panot (LFI), who intends to repeat to him “that he has no democratic legitimacy”.
The Prime Minister will also receive the socialists Boris Vallaud and Patrick Kanner and the ecologists Cyrielle Chatelain and Guillaume Gontard on Wednesday, then the communists André Chassaigne and Cécile Cukierman on Thursday.
Those responsible for the “common base” (LR, Renaissance/EPR, MoDem, Horizons) will be received together on Tuesday morning, like every week.
