The paths of radicalization have not prevailed in the majority in the department, which has returned to the polls in relation to 2022. Nevertheless, the National Rally, present in the three constituencies next Sunday, is reshuffling the cards imposing, at this moment, in the second and third a triangular one.
A record turnout. The opposite of the first round of the 2022 legislative elections, which peaked at 55.3%, down one and a half points compared to 2017, while 2012 still showed 66%. The Aveyron electorate went to the polls at 73.67% to the point of being, yesterday at noon, the most voting department: this is not a surprise, Rouergue as a whole being regularly a champion of civic duty.
The scenarios of participation
In a context that has been very shaken up since the European elections, which saw the National Rally lead the way in rejecting government policy (including in Aveyron), we could have expected a similar momentum from these early legislative elections. On two essential bases: first, a certain form of “dégagisme” claimed by the extremes on the left and right, a desire to change the paradigm once and for all, to invite people to “try” a path that has not been explored to date, even with projects for society with clear-cut contours, or even considered populist.
Then, the traditional catalyst for mobilization, fear of the unknown. The “republican front” facing the irrepressible rise of the National Rally. A “republican front”, like an antiphon beaten and rehearsed since the 2002 presidential election (Jean-Marie Le Pen facing Jacques Chirac), testifying if not to the impotence, at least to the reluctance of successive governments to curb nationalism . Added to this, in this lightning and rushed campaign of three short weeks, is the desire to “fight the extremes” like a specter of chaos that France could do without. And the “Everything but Macron”, whose clamor is growing a little more in France. Vote “against”, as too often, and no longer “for”, for lack of a clear choice.
Staying on course in turbulence
What was Aveyron going to do in this first round of legislative elections? A little bit of everything at once. Yesterday, the fist on the table was a little weaker than the sense of proportion. In the end, in fact, no big radical wave at the end of this first round. A department that has been moderate in essence for almost always, mainly attracted by the center right, but this time deprived of candidates in its image, the electorate certainly evolves over the generations and population changes, but not yet to the point of overthrowing Table. Was it really necessary to change the catechism in this election embodied by women and men on the ground, much more so than the Europeans?
The RN wins a second round in the three constituencies
Aveyron therefore voted, and instead stayed its course amid the turbulence, even if the message from voters has hardened somewhat since 2022.
This is evidenced by the presence, previously unprecedented, of the National Rally in the second round. A party which was able to count on the support at the country level, of a part of the Republicans by presenting candidates with the double label, as is the case in the third constituency. Several hundred additional Aveyron voices have joined the Bardella-Le Pen tandem party in two years.
Neck and neck and withdrawals
The New Popular Front (NFP) is not left behind, but has struggled in the first constituency against the incumbent Stéphane Mazars, the only one in a favorable runoff in this consultation with 43.59% of the votes, leaving his pursuers, Jean-Philippe Chartier (RN, 31.48%) and therefore Léon Thébault (NFP, 22.74%) at a distance. A runoff all the more favorable since Léon Thébault announced at the end of the evening that he was withdrawing in favor of Stéphane Mazars, leaving him a more comfortable lead.
Sport in sight in the second
It should be noted that the NFP lost ground in the second round, where its outgoing MP, Laurent Alexandre (32.73%), was neck and neck with Marie-Christine Parolin, candidate of the National Rally, who was 184 votes ahead of him, and Samuel Deguara (Ensemble, 30.55%), beaten in the final sprint in 2022… The second round is likely to be a tough one, unless we consider that a withdrawal in the second round between Samuel Deguara and Laurent Alexandre, the best placed, could give the latter a lead.
In the third constituency, Pierre-Antoine Fevre (RN-LR) has a short head start (1,500 votes) over the outgoing Jean-François Rousset (32.45%), followed by Richard Bouigue (NFP, 28.81%). Will the latter withdraw in favor of the Ensemble candidate as stipulated in the national agreements in favor of the best placed to obstruct the RN? Yesterday evening, the negotiations promised to be painful, especially since they were not guaranteed to convince voters next Sunday.
