Attention, triangular in sight and injunctions, followed by effects or not, to withdraw to be expected at the end of the second round. As the researcher Vincent Merlin (CNRS director, University of Caen Normandy) tells us, who also analyzed for If the specificities in the Loire, the participation in the 1is Legislative round Sunday should be in the “presidential” canon due to the circumstances. Enough to potentially allow more candidates to qualify for 2e round that 2 years ago…
The choice has been drastically reduced. However, it has become more burdensome with consequences. In 2022, the people of the Loire had to choose between a minimum of 9 candidates and a maximum of 14 per constituency. This gave rise to a total of 67 different candidates for the entire department. In 2024, the circumstances – calendar first and foremost, probably coupled with the desire not to disperse the votes of certain camps in view of the situation, not to mention the non-systematic presence this time of the presidential camp or even Reconquête – led to a considerable reduction in this number, which fell to a total of 37. The 3e constituency (Gier / East Stéphanois) this time only presents five choices, the 4the only four against, respectively, 14 (!) and 11 only 2 years ago. In 2024, the 6e (Forez) will be the constituency with the most candidates with 8 personalities to choose from.
Voters subject to fewer possibilities of “dispersion” therefore even if a good half of these candidacies did not obtain more than 2% of the votes cast. But cumulatively, this can also count. Above all, we must expect a much, much higher turnout than in 2022. “Due to the circumstances, the turnout will be strong compared to what we are used to in the legislative elections. We can expect a turnout of the same order as for a presidential election, in the Loire as elsewhere. That is to say perhaps more than 70%, in any case well over 60%.”, notes Vincent Merlin. This CNRS director, researcher at the University of Caen Normandy sometimes comes to the Loire as part of a collaboration with the GATE laboratory at Jean-Monnet University which has been carrying out experimental work on other voting methods for years , considered atypical but ultimately hardly more illegitimate than those to which French democracy is accustomed. Research orchestrated by Antoinette Baujard throughout France from Saint-Etienne.
No triangulars in the Loire in 2022
Participation in the legislative elections will therefore probably, for the first time since 2012, be higher than that of the European elections, where it has been rising for two consecutive elections, now exceeding that of the legislative elections. In France, “due to the inversion of the democratic calendar since 2002, that is to say the legislative elections immediately following the presidential election, and therefore clearly shunned for this reason”recalls Vincent Merlin, we now vote more to elect MEPs, as confirmed on 9 June, than for national MPs. But there will probably be a historic halt to this trend on Sunday. In 2022, there had already been a slight increase in participation – below the 50% mark since 2017 – with 48.01% of voters on 1is tour (+ 0.3% compared to 2017). A much sharper rise in the 2e : 44.15%, or + 3.2%. With 60, 65, 70% participation, the cards become very blurred.
Let us remember this essential fact: in the legislative elections, on Sunday it will be necessary to reach 12.5% of those registered on the electoral lists of a constituency to qualify for the second round.
Vincent Merlin, CNRS director, researcher at the University of Caen Normandy
“Let us remember this essential fact: in the legislative elections, on Sunday it will be necessary to reach 12.5% of those registered on the electoral lists of a constituency (whether they came to vote or not, Editor’s note) to qualify for the second round. Which means that with approximately 20% of the votes cast, you are qualified. The probability of many triangulars following the vote on Sunday is very high. And that makes a big difference with 2022 where even with more than 20% of the votes cast you were often eliminated”Vincent Merlin points out. In 2022, there will be no three-way races in the Loire after the first round, as in 2017 (especially since participation was lower than in 2022) and not because of the 3e had withdrawn. Two years ago, of the 12 qualified (2 x 6 constituencies), only half were within the theoretical “target” of 12.5% of registered voters: Andrée Taurinya (LFI) and her opponent Renaissance Jean-Michel Mis in the 2e constituency, Dino Cinieri (LR) in the 4eAntoine Vermorel Marques (LR) in the 5eJulien Borowczyk (Horizons) facing Jean-Pierre Taite (LR) in the 6e. So no one in the 1time and the 3e !
What will the 3 decide?es qualified on Sunday evening?
Clarification: when the 12.5% is not reached by any candidate, the first two are automatically qualified. Scores of nearly 22% of the votes cast were therefore not enough to be in the second round in 2022. It will therefore very likely be different on Sunday. It remains to be seen, this is the main thing, these two unknowns which will be revealed on Sunday evening: will the increase in participation, on the one hand, benefit the left or the RN, or even the presidential camp? On the other hand, has the RN success at the 2024 Europeans massively captured a growing or circumstantial membership? On this last question, “probably a bit of both”does not decide Vincent Merlin who cannot be blamed for Normand’s response in view of the great vagueness, perhaps even unprecedented, into which this election plunges us.
In his analysis of the Loire carried out before the submission of candidacies, the academic did not see how the presidential candidates could get by in Saint-Etienne (there is ultimately only Quentin Bataillon) in the context that we know. Less obvious for the 3e on the other hand. Specificity valid for Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and particularly, within it, the Loire: the region is a bastion of resistance for the LR which has a good quarter of their sixty deputies elected in 2022. Three alone in our department in six constituencies, including two newly elected and one re-elected with scores approaching 26% on 1is turn where they were (4e5e et 6e) with a clearly distanced RN. While a few weeks earlier, the LR candidate for the Presidency Valérie Pécresse achieved a very small 4.8% on the scale of the Loire! “We should not underestimate the success that can come from being a local figure, recognized within the territory, leading to different behaviors depending on the elections towards the same party”underlines Vincent Merlin.
Enough to confuse visibility and predictions a little more. This is even more the case when we think about the potential attitude of each side – including within a variegated alliance like the Popular Front – in the event of triangulars: Maintain? Abandonment but calling for who to vote? What will the LRs who arrive 3 do?es but having reached the qualifying gauge against an RN and a New Popular Front candidate in front of them on 1is tower? And vice versa? Will there be a different decision depending on whether one is an insoumis, ecologist, socialist or communist? And the RN itself: is it capable of withdrawing for an LR with “sincerity” or on the contrary to simply set fire? Finally, in the center, what will also be done by candidates from the presidential camp who arrive 3es… We know, that’s a lot of questions. It’s worth keeping them in mind.
