What will the weather be like near you in 2050? According to the Climadiag Commune tool developed by Météo France, global warming will have direct consequences on all four seasons. Focus on the two largest cities of Moselle, Metz and Thionville.
Thionville: 6x more warm nights in summer, much fewer freezing days in winter
As in the rest of the territory, climate change will cause periods of heatwave in Thionville. In 2050, the number of days considered to be in a “heat wave” will increase from 3 to 14. Conversely, the days of “cold wave” will be halved. The Thionvillois will especially spend more uncomfortable nights in summer : the temperature will remain above 20°C for around 12 days per summer, compared to two currently.
Over the year, each season will be warmer overall, particularly summer, with an average temperature above 21°C.
Data from Météo France still shows a slippage of the rainy season, even more focused on winter (38 days of rain are forecast) and spring (33 days). And therefore less precipitation in summer (two less) and autumn (one less). The amount of rain will explode in winter (from 193 to 235 mm) and the gap with summer will increase.
Given the rising temperatures, the number of days of frost (temperature below 0°C) will plummetgoing from 58 today to 34 in 2050.
Metz: more rain in winter, heatstroke in summer
HAS Metz, Météo France has calculated that at this rate, the average temperature in winter will increase from 2.4°C to 4.4°C. A difference of 2°C which will reduce the number of days of frost from 60 to 36.
Average temperatures will also increase each season of the year. In summer, it will be 20.9°C on average.much more than the 18.5°C which is used as the value today.
This is precisely one of the markers of a heatwave, when the night-time temperature does not fall below 20°C. The people of Metz will experience 12 “hot nights” per year, compared to only two on average today. And four days per year at more than 35°C, compared to one day currently. Those who live in the city center will be particularly affected since the town is very sensitive to the heat island phenomenon.
On the other hand, cumulative precipitation will significantly increase in the town in winter (from 194 to 234 mm on average). From winter 2050, it will rain 39 days in the season alone, compared to 35 today.
However, Météo France assures that the risk of fire will increase : there will be five days of significant risk and almost four months with dry soils in summer and fall.
