Three days before the first round of the legislative elections, an electoral survey carried out by Ipsos to The world reveals that the National Rally (RN) largely wins with 36% of voting intentions. This survey, carried out from June 21 to 24, also shows significant progress by the New Popular Front, which comes in second position with 29% of voting intentions.
A breakthrough for the National Rally
With 36% of voting intentions, the RN, led by Jordan Bardella, achieved a notable performance compared to the 2022 legislative elections, where it obtained just over 18% of the vote. This exceptional mobilization of the far-right electorate comes less than a month after the European elections, thus consolidating Bardella’s position. In addition, 4% of voters expressed their intention to vote for a candidate from the Republicans (LR) allied with the RN in the first round.
A context of weakened Republican barrier
The reflex of blocking votes against the RN seems to be losing its effectiveness. Among those surveyed voting in the first round to block other candidates, 69% want to prevent the victory of the RN, but 63% also indicate they want to block the New Popular Front. This duality shows a dispersion of anti-RN voting intentions, weakening the traditional Republican front.
Uncertainties among right-wing voters
Uncertainty remains high among right-wing voters, where 44% of them have not yet made their choice. This figure is twice as high as the average of respondents, which shows a fragmentation of the political right. Despite Eric Ciotti’s statements, the majority of LR supporters disapprove of the alliance with Jordan Bardella, with 53% expressing their disagreement.
Mixed support for the New Popular Front
On the left, the New Popular Front garners solid but heterogeneous support. If 95% of those close to La France insoumise approve of the agreement, this figure drops to 72% among the Socialists. In addition, 16% of potential voters in this coalition plan to vote for the presidential party in their constituency, revealing internal tensions.
A criticized dissolution
President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly is poorly received by a majority of French people. According to the survey, 56% express a negative feeling, shared between incomprehension (26%), fear (21%) and anger (9%). Even among supporters of the presidential party, 58% disapprove of this decision.
Historic participation in sight
Despite these controversies, participation in the legislative elections promises to be historic. Between 61 and 65% of respondents affirm their intention to vote, compared to 47.5% in 2022. In addition, 81% say they are interested in these elections, and the online vote of French people abroad reaches a record of 410,000 participants, with a number of proxies doubled compared to 2022.
This pre-election survey indicates favorable dynamics for the RN and potentially historic electoral participation. However, uncertainties remain, particularly among the right-wing electorate and the socialist left. The vote in the first round of the legislative elections therefore promises to be decisive for the political future of France.
