The legislative elections are imminent. As the French prepare to vote this Sunday, June 30, following the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron, an OpinionWay survey for CNews, Europe 1 and the JDD, published this Friday, June 28, asked respondents: “If the first round of the legislative elections were to take place this Sunday, which of the following candidates would you vote for in your constituency?”
In this hot context, the National Rally and its allies, including the Republican candidates supporting Éric Ciotti, would obtain 36% of voting intentions. A score that gives hope for an absolute majority after the second round for the party led by Jordan Bardella. For its part, the New Popular Front would come in second place with 28% of the vote, while the candidates of the presidential majority would come in third place with 20% of the vote. Compared to the latest OpinionWay barometer for CNews, Europe 1 and the JDD published on June 20, the RN gains 1 point, as does the union of the left. On the other hand, Renaissance is not progressing.
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A few hours before the election, the two main political forces are making progress, while the secondary parties are not experiencing a significant increase. The Republicans remain at 7%, and Reconquest stagnates at 2%, as do the various right-wing candidates. The far left, an independent environmentalist candidate and a diverse left-wing candidate would each collect 1% of the vote if the vote took place next Sunday.
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Young people prefer the RN and the NFP
The detailed results of the barometer show that 18-24 year olds mainly turn towards the candidates of the New Popular Front (53%), while those of the presidential majority would only obtain 13% of the votes and the RN 26%. Among 35-49 year olds, the trend reverses with 27% voting intentions for the New Popular Front and 40% for the National Rally and its allies. The presidential majority dominates only among those aged 65 and over with 34% of voting intentions, just ahead of the RN (31%), which is a hit among those aged 50-64 (46%).
Unsurprisingly, 83% of those wishing to vote for the National Rally and its allies had already supported Jordan Bardella’s list in the European elections. His party captures 21% of the LR electorate and 55% of Reconquête. At the other end of the political spectrum, 84% of La France Insoumise voters, 64% of the Socialist Party voters, and 75% of environmentalists would turn to the New Popular Front.
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Concerning the presidential majority, 79% of voters who supported Valérie Hayer in the European elections would again choose Emmanuel Macron’s coalition for the early legislative elections. Center voters were undoubtedly reassured to see Gabriel Attal, outgoing Prime Minister and candidate for his own succession, taking the lead in this campaign.
Participation boom
As a reminder, the election will be held using the two-round single-member majority voting system in 577 constituencies. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must obtain more than 50% of the votes cast and at least 25% of the votes of registered voters. If no candidate meets these conditions, the top two will automatically qualify for the second round, scheduled for July 7. Candidates who obtained more than 12.5% of registered voters can also remain, even if they are in third or fourth position. In the second round, the candidate with the most votes will win, regardless of turnout.
Despite a low turnout in the European elections (51.49%), these unexpected legislative elections could cause a real electroshock among the French, as Emmanuel Macron had undoubtedly anticipated by choosing to dissolve the Assembly. With an estimated turnout of 63% on June 30, this is undoubtedly “the most significant fact” of our recent survey in partnership with Ifop. This level of participation – if confirmed – would be unequaled since 2002 (64.42%) and would represent an increase of fifteen points compared to 2022. In this atmosphere of dramatization of the vote, with the risk of a double or quits leading to a possible cohabitation, the French seem more mobilized than ever for this crucial election.
