When two countries as comparable as France and the UK vote at the same time, but in opposite directions, it makes one want to take a closer look. The French vote on the next two Sundays, and the British on Tuesday; both are early general elections, and in both countries the ruling party is likely to suffer a crushing defeat.
The comparison ends there, because London is going to head completely to the left, if the polls are to be believed; while France is experiencing a strong surge in the far right, coupled with absolute polarization.
This great divergence is explained by different political cycles. “Basically, wrote a few days ago in Le Figaro Michel Barnier, the former European Brexit negotiator, are the British only eight years ahead of us? » Explanation: the British are trying to correct through political alternation the colossal error they made in 2015 by voting for Brexit. At a time when France in turn gives in to the sirens of populism.
Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron then organized a referendum on Britain’s exit from the EU, believing he would win. A demagogic campaign, riddled with disinformation, produced the opposite result. What followed were years of noxious negotiations, incompetent prime ministers, divisions and a collapse of the economy.
Today, the Labor Party is at the gates of power, after a long journey through the desert due to political radicalism, returning to a less divisive program, and a more consensual leader, Keir Starmer. It will not bring the United Kingdom back into Europe, but should rebuild links and heal the wounds.
On the other hand, France could have its “Brexit moment”, that is to say a plunge into the unknown, unmarked, with unpredictable consequences for the country, for its citizens, and for Europe.
The “Brexit moment” was the certainty of a majority of British people that their country, freed from the influence of Brussels, would regain its past greatness. The opposite happened, living standards fell and British influence diminished.
Michel Barnier recalls in his article the words of Marine Le Pen on the evening of Brexit: “We vibrate with the British who have seized this extraordinary opportunity to escape from servitude”. Today obviously, faced with the failure of Brexit, the National Rally is not proposing Frexit; but has he changed his mind? And won’t his policy automatically lead to a weakening of Europe? The question is at least worth asking.
The former European negotiator calls for drawing “French lessons from Brexit”, but that seems impossible in a very particular, and very national, political moment.
On July 18, the new British Prime Minister, undoubtedly Keir Starmer, will host in the United Kingdom the 3rd Summit of the European Political Community, a continental structure proposed by Emmanuel Macron two years ago. For the British, the page on Brexit will begin to be turned; who can say where France will be then?
