This Thursday will be a snowy day in the Paris basin with a winter cold and an icy breeze. It will be a remarkably cold day for November. On the other hand, there are still uncertainties regarding the intensity of snowfall and the thicknesses that will possibly cover the ground. We indicate here the weather scenario which seems most likely to us, knowing that adjustments will be inevitable over the next few hours.
Snowy day in Île-de-France: a rare situation in November
Snowy days in the Paris region are not frequent in November. We have to go back to the end of November 2010 to find significant snowfall in the south of Île-de-France and especially in Orléanais, where 30 cm fell. In the past, 23 cm of snow fell in Paris on November 14…1887, just like in 1919! Also in November, in 1968, there was 6 cm of snow in Paris. Closer, heavy snowfall in November occurred in the years 1985 to 1990, then in 1996. On the other hand, melting snow on the Ile-de-France plateaus is more common but without aggravating character. But since 2010, the Paris basin has not experienced a cold, let alone snowy, November.
What to expect this Thursday?
Snowfall in Ile de France expected this Thursday © The Weather Channel
The situation this Thursday is likely to be remarkable for the season due to the intensity of the snowfall and its very likely hold on the ground. However, there remain many uncertainties about these parameters, but it is important to anticipate in order to better organize ourselves. So, if you can not travel (especially by car, scooter or motorbike), it is better to stay at home until Friday noon (because there will also be icy conditions Friday morning). It is likely that school transport will also be suspended: find out if this concerns you.
Concretely, what will happen?
The predominant weather scenario is as follows:
Morning: It is cold, but dry early in the morning, with temperatures close to +2 to +3°C within the city walls, 1°C outside the ring road, and 0°C in the countryside. We will therefore barely be at the edge of frost, which will avoid the risk of ice forming on the ground. The easterly breeze is rising and you will feel very cold (-2).
Under a whitish, snowy sky, the first flakes will begin to flutter around 9 a.m. from the west (because the snow will come from Eure-et-Loir). The atmosphere will be wintry but the snow, initially quite light, will wet the roads without sticking to the ground. In inner Paris, this will not last but could sprinkle the roofs and parks.
Mid-day:
Snow falls all over the region, in large flakes driven away by the biting east wind. The entire region is affected. It seems that the falls are steeper between Yvelines and Essonne passing through the Rambouillet forest. But on this subject, uncertainties still concern this zoning, which could go further north.
Afternoon :
Snow should fall until the end of the afternoon, always accompanied by a strong east to northeast breeze (40 to 50 km/h). Due to the duration of this snowfall, temperatures will not rise and will plateau between 1 and 3°C at the best of the day. These values allow the snow to hold on the plateau areas (altitude greater than 150 – 200 m), while the Seine valley and Paris intra muros will only experience a sprinkling and wet snow. On the plateaus, a ground layer of 3 to 8 cm is envisaged. You will then have to be careful on small roads.
Thursday evening: watch out for bitter cold and icy conditions
The snowfall stops. The cold becomes biting with the northeast wind. Temperatures are dropping quickly. It will freeze in the countryside, and wet and snowy ground may become icy. This risk will be much more limited in the Seine valley, especially in the Paris metropolitan area, but untreated sidewalks may become slippery at night: be very careful.
